Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 31 2024 – Bounce Attempt – Possible Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thu May 30 2024 the SPX opened lower and closed lower, losing 31 points. However while the index fell, 70% of volume was to the upside and 66% of all stocks were climbing.

The NASDAQ fell lead by Salesforce.com Stock (CRM) which fell almost 20% to close down $53.61 to $218.01 in what can only be described as a bloodbath for its shareholders. The NASDAQ lost 183 points to close at 16737 but interestingly 65% of all trades were to the upside and 55% of all stocks were advancing intraday.

Let review the closing technical signals from Thu May 30 2024 to see how what to expect for Fri May 31 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu May 30 2024

The index closed at the 21 day moving average which is bearish but is often seen as a signal for a bounce.

The closing candlestick is bearish and closed at the lows of the day. Usually this signal is followed by a lower open and then a bounce attempt.

The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.

The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4848 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5056.

The Lower Bollinger Band is now above the 100 day moving average and rising which is bullish and another up signal for the SPX. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is bearish.

The S&P chart is still more bullish than bearish but the two bearish signals are strong for the final day of the week.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu May 30 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 31 2024 

For Friday the SPX is facing a new but unconfirmed down signal from the MACD Technical indicator. This has been a very reliable indicator and if confirmed, I will be buying some SPY put options to try to profit from any further move lower.

At the same time the Lower Bollinger Band moved above the 100 day moving average which is an up signal.

Meanwhile the remaining technical signals show a strong chance for a bounce either Friday or Monday. There are also signals that Friday may end slightly positive.

Today investors get the latest PCE numbers which if higher than expected, could send stocks lower, especially if the 10 year yield in Treasury Bills rises.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

On Wednesday the Fed’s Beige Book was released. That caused some volatility. Friday we get the latest PCE numbers. Those numbers could swing the markets.

Monday:

Memorial Day

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index was expected to be unchanged at 7.3% but came in slightly higher at 7.4%

10:00 Consumer Confidence was expect to slip to 96.0 from 97.0 prior but rose to 102.

Wednesday: 

2:00 Fed Beige Book

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims was expected to rise to 218,000 but rose to 219,000

8:30 First revision of GDP was estimated at 1.2% but came in at 1.3%

10:00 Pending home sales were expected to fall to -0.4% from 3.4% but fell -7.7%, much worse than expected

Friday:

8:30 Personal income is expected to slip to 0.3% from 0.5%

8:30 Personal spending is expected to fall to 0.4% from 0.8%

8:30 PCE Index is expected to be unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 PCE year-over-year is expected to be unchanged at 2.7%

8:30 Core PCE is expected to be 0.2% falling from 0.3% prior

8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is expected to be unchanged at 2.8%

9:45 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) is expected to rise to 40.8 from 37.9