Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thu May 22 2025 investors tried to bounce stocks higher and by 3:30 the SPX was at 5876 which, if held, would have been a positive close. However the last 30 minutes of trading was all about sellers and the index closed at 5842, down just 2 points for a third straight day of losses on the S&P. Volume was 5.2 billion shares traded with 48% of that volume traded lower and 51% of stocks falling by the close. You can see that Thursday ended fairly flat on the day but the give back of the 3:30 high was disappointing, although typical of a market where investors remain worried about the outlook for equities if bond yields continued to climb.
The NASDAQ traded 8.5 billion shares, almost 3 billion less shares from Wednesday. 57% of all volume was being traded higher although 49% of all stocks were falling. Despite this, the NASDAQ squeaked out a 53 point advance to end the day at 18925.
Lets review the technical indicators from the close on Thu May 22 2025 to see what we should expect for Fri May 23 2025.
Memorial Day Membership Sale
The Memorial Day Membership Sale will start tomorrow and last until Tuesday May 27 at midnight ET. I hope investors will take advantage of the specials which will be unveiled tomorrow.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu May 22 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. The index moved lower again on Thursday although just barely.
The closing candlestick is bearish and signals that a bounce is possible but weakness is continuing to grow. A lower close is likely for Friday.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5726 which is bullish. At the close on Thursday, the 21 day moved above the 100 day for a another up signal. There are now just two down signals left from the late March and early April collapse.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5579 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5710 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5660 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is turning higher which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning down which is bearish and could end up moving into a Bollinger Bands Squeeze next week.
For Fri May 23 2025 the SPX chart is more bearish than bullish.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu May 22 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Apr 22 2025. On Thu May 22 2025 the up signal lost more strength for a fifth straight day signaling weakness is building strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling sharply.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal at the close and is not overbought.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and not overbought.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling a lower close for Friday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is resistance |
| 5785 is resistance |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
| 5450 is support |
| 5400 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 23 2025
For Fri May 23 2025 the SPX is signaling a lower day is once more expected, along with a potential bounce attempt intraday. All the technical indicators are pointing lower for the SPX. The MACD technical indicator could issue a down signal at the close today. This would be a major blow to the bulls, should it be generated.
For Friday, a lot depends on the rising bond yields. If they dip back from their recent rise, stocks may attempt to rally higher. The outlook suggests that is not going to happen and stocks will end the day lower. Watch the MACD technical indicator. If it changes to down, I will be buying some shares of the SQQQ on Monday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
10:00 Leading economic indicators dipped more than estimated to -1.0% from -0.8% prior
Tuesday:
No econo0mic reports
Wednesday:
No econo0mic reports
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were lower than expected, coming in at 277,000 but still higher than last week’s 229,000.
9:45 S&P flash US services PMI rose to 52.3 from 50.8 prior
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI beat estimates, coming in at 52.3 from 50.2 prior
10:00 Existing home sales fell more than anticipated, coming in at 4.0 million from 4.02 million prior
Fri May 23 2025:
10:00 New home sales are estimated at 695,000 for April, down from 724,000 in March.