Thursday saw buyers return and continue the rally from Wednesday. By the close the S&P was up 43 points to close at 4159, just 79 points from the all-time high. The NASDAQ rose 236 points marking the second best day for May and second best day since March 11. The index is just 676 points away from its all-time high.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu May 20 2021
The Bollinger Bands are continuing to widen which is a bullish sign. The Lower Bollinger Band is now at the 50 day moving average and ready to fall below it, another bullish signal.
The closing candlestick for Friday is signaling higher after closing at the 21 day on Thursday.
The 21 day moving average is falling which is bearish but the 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are still climbing which is bullish.
The chart is still bullish with just a couple of bearish signals to watch.
Stock Market Outlook review of Wed May 19 2021
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is negative and unchanged.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Friday April 30 2021. On Thursday the down signal lost strength.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Friday but will easily turn to an up signal if Friday is higher.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising for a second day signaling we should see higher prices on Friday.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4250 is resistance
4225 is resistance
4200 is resistance
4150 is light support
4100 is light support
4070 is very light support
4050 is light support and where the 50 day is currently residing. This would represent a 4.4% decline.
4000 is good support
3900 is support and just below the 100 day moving average.
3850 is support
3800 is support
3750 is good support
3700 is light support and just below the 200 day moving average.
3680 is light support
3600 is strong support
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri May 21 2021
For Friday the S&P is positioned to move higher. The index closed at the 21 day moving average and the Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day moving average, both bullish signals. The technical indicators have turned toward more support of the market rising as even those indicators that are negative have stopped falling or turned sideways. Friday is triple witching and historically the index has been up 65% of the time over the last two decades. We will see a higher day on Friday. I am also holding TQQQ shares from purchase on Thursday morning as I also expect to see the NASDAQ move higher tomorrow as well.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
