Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 16 2025 – Choppy Dips Likely But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday stocks saw more profit-taking but continued to also find plenty of buyers. Volume on the SPX was 5 billion, down just slightly from yesterday but the lowest so far for the week. 53% of all volume was being traded higher.  The SPX ended the day up 24 points to close at 5916. This is the 4th straight day of gains.

On the NASDAQ 10.9 billion shares traded with 57% of all stocks continuing to move higher.  The index though dipped 34 points to close at 19112.

Stocks remain overbought but dips are finding ready buyers. If buyers decide to move lower, we will see more selling.

Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Thu May 15 2025 to see what we should expect for Fri May 16 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu May 15 2025

The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. This signals overbought and a growing potential for weakness to creep in. You can clearly see the index is not actually climbing but drifting sideways.

The closing candlestick is bullish but is signaling that dips are once again probable for today.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5575 which is bullish. On Wednesday the 21 day crossed above the 50 day, the first up signal from the 21 day moving average. This reversed the 5th down signal in the SPX chart.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5553 which is bullish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15 which issued a 4th down signal on the SPX.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5690 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5647 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.

For Fri May 16 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish with continuing warnings of the market dipping being likely.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu May 15 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 16 2025 

For Friday all the moving averages are continuing to rise which is bullish. The technical indicators are all bullish but overbought. Stocks are facing growing weakness as the index drifts sideways more than up. On Friday we will see further dips but as long as investors are buying the dips, the index will close higher on Friday, even if only slightly.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

2:00 Monthly federal budget for April came in slightly higher than estimated at $258 billion

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index was 95.8 down from 97.4 prior

8:30 Consumer price index rose 0.2% from -0.1% prior

8:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year was unchanged at 2.4%

8:30 Core CPI is expected to rose slightly to 0.3% from 0.1% prior

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was unchanged at 2.8%

Wednesday:

no economic reports

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 229,000 from 228,000 which was unexpected.

8:30 Retail sales fell as estimated to 0.1%

8:30 Producer Price Index rose as estimated to 0.5%

8:30 Core PPI fell to -0.2%

8:40 Fed Chair Powell speaks

9:15 Industrial production missed estimates and was flat at 0.00%

10:00 Business inventories slipped to 0.1%

10:00 Home builder confidence missed estimates and fell to 34.

Friday:

8:30 Import price index is estimated to fall to -0.4%

8:30 Housing starts are estimated to rise to 1.36 million

10:00 Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 53.5 from 52.2