Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday stocks moved dramatically higher to new all-time highs. The S&P rose 52 points to close at 5157 and intraday reached 5165 on 4.2 billion shares traded. Thursday’s action brought the S&P 20 points above last Friday’s (Mar 1) close, wiping out all of Monday and Tuesday’s decline.
The NASDAQ on Thursday rose 241 points to close at 16,273. This placed the index back to where it was trading on Friday (Mar 1) when it closed at 16,274. This also wiped out the losses from Monday and Tuesday. Volume was strong at 5.2 billion shares. Much of the rally came from Fed Chair Powell’s comments that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate. While not providing an actual timetable for easing he indicated the day could be coming soon.
On Friday investors get the February non-farm payroll report. This should be the main event that sets the market direction to start the day, but the technical indicators still will have influence, especially as the day progresses.
Lets review Thursday’s closing technical indicators to see what we should expect for Fri Mar 8 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Mar 7 2024
The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday although there is a short tail which indicates a good chance of a dip, but it should be a tradable dip before a bounce back.
The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is at 5050 on the SPX.
The 50 day moving average is rising and at 4920, which is bullish.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is at 4585 on the SPX which is bullish.
The Bollinger Bands are still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze. The Lower Bollinger Band started to turn lower on Thursday at the close. If this continues, the signal will be higher for stocks.
The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish for Friday although initially the February non-farm payroll report could be the deciding factor for market direction.
Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Mar 7 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is fallingg and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Mar 5. On Thu Mar 7 2024 the down signal was almost gone and the signal had turned neutral.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is moving sideways and positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak down signal in place and is overbought. The down signal is almost ready to turn into an up signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and signaling a higher close is expected for Friday.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5175 is resistance |
| 5150 is resistance |
| 5125 is resistance |
| 5115 is resistance |
| 5100 is resistance |
| 5090 is resistance |
| 5075 is resistance |
| 5050 is resistance |
| 5025 is resistance |
| 5010 is resistance |
| 5000 is resistance |
| 4990 is resistance |
| 4975 is light support |
| 4950 is support |
| 4925 is support |
| 4915 is support |
| 4900 is support |
| 4875 is support |
| 4850 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 8 2024
Friday starts with investors getting the February non-farm payroll numbers which are expected to come in at 198,000 which is well down from last month’s 353,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay steady at 3.7%. Hourly wages are expected to dip to 0.2% and wages year-over-year are estimates to dip to 4.4%. If any of these numbers are widely missed, stocks could open the day lower. But by the afternoon, the technical indicators will be exerting their influence. Overwhelmingly they are pointing to stocks as moving higher.
If stocks do dip on Friday, the MACD technical indicator has already lost the latest down signal. Usually this means that even if the market falls on Friday, indexes will regain their footing on Monday or Tuesday and push higher again.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This is a busy week for reports with Fed Chair powell testifying before Congress on Wednesday and Thursday along with February unemployment numbers on Friday.
Monday:
No economic reports due out.
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders were expected to slip to -3.1% but fell to -3.6%
10:00 ISM services are estimated to be slightly weaker at 53.0% from 53.4% prior. They came in at 52.6%
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is expected to come in at 150,000 but was lower at 140,000
10:00 Fed Chair Powell testifies
10:00 Wholesale inventories are expected to fall to -0.1% but fell more to -0.3%
10:00 Job openings are expected to fall to 8.9 million from 9.0 million. They came in at 8.9 million.
2:00 Fed Beige Book
Thursday:
8:30 Initial jobless claims met estimates of rising to 217,000
8:30 Productivity was expected to dip slightly to 3.1% but rose instead to 3.2%
8:30 Trade balance wasexpected to dip to -$63.4 billion but instead rose to $67.4 billion, a surprise for all analysts
3:00 Consumer credit was estimated to jump to $10 billion but instead rose to $19.5 billion almost double all estimates and a surprise.
Friday:
8:30 February non-farm payroll is expected at 198,000
8:30 Unemployment rate is expected unchanged at 3.7%
8:30 Hourly wages are estimated to fall to 0.2%
8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year are expected to fall to 4.4%