Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday the day started with indexes opening considerably lower and ending the day having reached the 200 day moving average a couple of times intraday. The SPX closed down 104 points for a second time this week. The index closed at 5738. Volume was lower at 5.2 billion shares but 70% of all volume was moving lower by the close. 70% of all stocks on the SPX also fell.
The NASDAQ lost 489 points to end the day at 18069, the lowest close since October 7 2024. Volume was 7.8 billion, higher than yesterday’s but not the highest of the week. 66% of all stocks were falling by the close as semiconductor stocks, in particular, continue to be sold lower.
With the February non-farm payroll numbers due on Friday let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Mar 6 2025 to see what to expect for Fri Mar 7 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Mar 6 2025
The index reached the 200 day moving average and closed off it. This points to an oversold condition and a probable bounce ahead for stocks.
The closing candlestick indicates Friday could see a bounce attempt.
The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5995 which is bearish. The 21 day is almost ready to fall below the 50 day for a major down signal.
The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5985 which is bearish.
The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5909 which is bearish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5709 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is trending higher which is bullish. If it turned and moves lower this will be bearish for the index overall.
For Friday the SPX chart is bearish and indicates that while stocks are oversold, there is still a chance they will fall below the 200 day moving average, especially if the non-farm payroll report on Friday, disappoints.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Mar 6 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling, negative and oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Feb 21 2025. The down signal is stronger on Thu Mar 6 2025. It is at levels signaling the SPX is oversold.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling Friday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5730 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 7 2025
For Friday the opening direction will depend on the February non-farm payroll report. Once the initial move is over, then the technical indicators will have more effect. At present they are bearish and signs are pointing to further downside. Stocks are very oversold and the technical indicators are at levels where usually we can expect a bounce.
Therefore if the jobs report comes in as expected at roughly 170,000 there is a good chance for a bounce, but if the number is a lot lower, we could see the index slip further although an intraday bounce is still possible. But the close could be negative and below the 200 day.
It’s anyone’s guess what the February employment report will show, but overall the market has some rebuilding to do to recover where it was just a couple of weeks ago. On Friday I am expecting a volatile day but whether up or down really depends on the jobs numbers. Friday really is “All About The Non-farm Payroll Report”.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is estimated lower at 50.1 versus 51.6 prior
10:00 Construction spending is expected to fall to 0.1% from 0.5% prior
10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected lower at 50.6% versus 50.9% prior
No fixed time: Auto sales are estimated at 15 million, down from 15.6 million prior
Tuesday:
There are no economic reports
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment report was expected to show 148,000 jobs but came in at 77,000
9:45 S&P final services PMI came in higher than expected at 51%
10:00 Factory orders rose to 1.7% a surprise 1.6%
10:00 ISM services rose to 53.5% again unexpected
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were lower than estimated at 221,000
8:30 US Productivity was higher than estimated at 1.5%
8:30 US trade deficit jumped to $131.4 billion
10:00 Wholesale inventories rose more than expected at 0.8%
Friday:
8:30 February jobs report is estimated at 170,000 up from 143,000 prior
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated unchanged at 4.0%
8:30 Hourly wages are estimated at 0.3%
8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year is estimated at 4.2%
3:00 Consumer credit is expected to fall to $14.5 billion down dramatically from $40.8 billion prior