Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 26 2021 – Confirmed Down But Another Bounce Likely

On Thursday the S&P slipped in the morning and broke through the 21 and and the 50 day moving averages. That brought in buyers who pushed sellers back and as the afternoon progressed they retook the 50 and 21 day moving averages and pushed back above 3900 to closed at 3910. Let’s review Thursday’s closing signals to see what is in store for Friday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Mar 25 2021 

The Upper Bollinger Band is still not moving higher but instead is trending sideways which is a bit bearish. The Lower Bollinger Band which was falling is starting to turn back up. If it rises to the 50 day it will be bearish.

The include dipped below the 21 and 50 day moving averages on Thursday and then climbed back above them. This left behind a bullish candlestick that usually points to a second bounce for Friday.

The 21 day is still trying to rise while the 50 day is dipping lower. Neither is bullish.

he 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Mar 25 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Wednesday Mar 24 2021 . On Thursday the down signal was confirmed.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for a sixth day.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4000 is resistance

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support and the 100 day is at this level

3700 is light support

3680 is light support – The 100 day moving average is at this valuation.

3600 is strong support

3550 is support – The 200 day is at this level. A drop this low would be a 10% correction.

3500 is strong support

3450 is support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Mar 26 2021 

The technical indicators are more mixed at the close on Thursday with the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence confirming its down signal from Wednesday but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Ultimate Oscillator rising.

Friday looks steady for another bounce attempt with a higher close.

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