Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 24 2023 – Unconfirmed Up Signal – Day Three

Mar 24, 2023 | Stock Market Outlook

On Thursday Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen was back at committee trying to repair some of the damage done on Wednesday with rather confusing statements. It was a choppy day with stocks up and down but by the close the all three major indexes were higher. The small caps though were lower by just shy of half a percent.

The S&P which had earlier in the day recovered almost all of Wednesday’s loss ended the day up just 11 points to close at 3948, just below the 3950 support level.

The NASDAQ ended up 1% for a gain of 117 points to close at 11,787.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Mar 23 2023 to see what we should expect for Fri Mar 24 2023.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Mar 23 2023

The index closed with a n eutral candlestick for Friday.

The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is a bearish signal. The Lower Bollinger Band is also turning sideways. There is no signal up or down as of Thursday’s close.

The 200 day moving average is falling which is bearish. The 21 day is continuing to descend after generating a down signal on Friday Mar 17. It is below all major moving averages.

Meanwhile the 50 day has turned sideways but is holding above the 200 day. This is still bullish.

At present there are 4 down signals in place since April 24 and 3 up signals since Jan 13.

The chart is bearish with the candlestick neutral for Friday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Mar 23 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) continued with an unconfirmed up signal at the close on Thursday. The histogram is also slightly positive.

Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and negative.

Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is neutral and clinging to a positive reading.

Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising and nearing positive readings.

Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4100 is resistance

4090 is resistance

4075 is resistance

4050 is resistance

4030 is resistance

4025 is resistance

4000 is resistance

3975 is light support

3965 is light support

3950 is good support

3930 is light support

3900 is good support

3870 is light support

3850 is good support

3825 is light support

3810 is light support

3800 is good support

3775 is good support

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 24 2023

For Friday the technical indicators are continuing to show weakness but are not in free-fall. MACD has still not confirmed the up signal. Other technical indicators are turning lower.

For Friday there is a strong chance of the index opening higher and then moving lower. 3950 on the SPX is support but the S&P had trouble staying above it on Thursday. For Friday a close below it looks likely.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

The big event for the week was the Fed’s quarter point rate hike on Wednesday.

Friday:

8:30 Durable Goods which are expected to come in at -0.3%

9:30 Fed President Bullard speaks and is hawkish. Expect some weakness in the markets.

9:30 Global Flash US services PMI

9:45 Global Flash US manufacturing PMU

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