Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 14 2025 – Bounce Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thu Mar 13 2025 stocks continued their downward spiral with the SPX at the 5500 level before managing to close slightly above it. The SPX ended the day down 77 points to 5521. The NASDAQ closed down 345 points to 17303.

With both indexes now in technical corrections, stocks should see some kind of bounce attempt.

Lets review the SPX technical indicators at the close on Thu Mar 13 2025 to see if a bounce could work on Fri Mar 14 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Mar 13 2025

For a fourth straight day, the index traded below the 200 day moving average the entire day on Thursday. This is bearish.

The closing candlestick has a short shadow which suggests a good chance for a higher open on Friday. Overall though the candlestick is bearish.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5889 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7 and on Thursday it reached the 50 day, setting up a second down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5948 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5881 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5704 which is bearish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which suggests a bounce attempt for today.

For Friday the SPX chart is strongly bearish and deeply oversold. A bounce is possible.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Mar 13 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 14 2025 

The technical indicators are deeply oversold and almost all are pointing to a sharp and strong bounce for Friday, probably to start the day.

While any bounce is suspect at present, the technical indicators advise that a bounce on Friday could last into Monday.

The only economic report on Friday is consumer sentiment which is expected to slip to 63.2. This should not impact a chance for a bounce.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

There are no economic reports

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index was lower than estimated coming in at 100.7

10:00 Job openings came in higher than estimated at 7.7 million

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index came in at 0.2%, below estimates

8:30 CPI year-over-year came n at 2.8% below estimates

8:30 Core CPI came in at 0.2%, below estimates

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year came in at 3.1% which was below estimates

2:00 Monthly Federal budget was worse than estimated at -$307 billion

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were lower at 220,000

8:30 Producer Price Index came in at 0.0%, lower than anticipated

8:30 Core Producer Price Index came in at 0.2%, lower than estimates

8:30 Producer Price Index year-over-year was lower at 3.2%

8:30 Core Producer Price Index year-over-year was lower than estimated at 3.3%

Froday:

10:00 Consumer sentiment is anticipated to be lower at 63.2, down from 65.7 prior