Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Thursday stocks were in a sideways holding pattern waiting for May unemployment report due out Friday. Intraday the S&P rose to a new all-time high of 5362 before closing down 1 point at 5353.
The NASDAQ also m,ade a new all-time high of 17235 before closing down 14 points at 17173.
While the May Non-Farm Payroll Numbers will have the most impact on Friday, particularly in the morning, the technical indicators will still play a role, especially heading into next week.
Let review the closing technical signals from Thu Jun 6 2024 to see how what to expect for Fri Jun 7 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jun 6 2024
The index closed above the 21 day moving average, touching the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is neutral but the long shadow indicates a good chance there will be some selling on Friday.
The 21 day moving average is still climbing continuing the latest up signal.
The 50 day moving average is climbing which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is still climbing. The 200 day is at 4866 which is bullish and the 100 day is also climbing to 5080.
The Lower Bollinger Band is now above the 50 day moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is turned higher as the SPX is in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
The S&P chart is bullish and the Bollinger Bands Squeeze now looks like stocks will move higher out of the squeeze.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jun 6 2024 – chart courtesy TradingView
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu May 30 2024. On Thu Jun 6 2024 a new unconfirmed up signal was issued. The MACD histogram turned positive.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive. It is nearing overbought readings.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is unchanged and positive.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling that Friday will see some selling.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 5400 is resistance |
| 5375 is resistance |
| 5350 is resistance |
| 5325 is resistance |
| 5310 is resistance |
| 5300 is resistance |
| 5275 is resistance |
| 5250 is light support |
| 5225 is light support |
| 5200 is good support |
| 5190 is light support |
| 5175 is light support |
| 5150 is support |
| 5125 is support |
| 5115 is support |
| 5100 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jun 7 2024
For Friday, May’s Non-Farm Payroll Report will have the first “say” which direction stocks will move. After that the technical indicators will have some influence and they are still quite bullish. The MACD technical indicator has changed to an up signal which is unconfirmed but looks like Friday or early next week could confirm it.
On Friday also watch the hourly wages. If they rise beyond estimates that will be seen as inflationary. Finally consumer credit should be watched. A large jump is expected. If the number is higher it shows the consumer is under stress from inflationary prices.
For Friday it is anyone’s guess which what the latest unemployment report will show, but overall the strength lies with the bulls. My guess for Friday is a higher close for the SPX.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This is a big week for economic numbers culminating in the May non-farm payroll numbers due out on Friday June 7 at 8:30.
Monday:
9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI was expected to slip slightly to 50.7 from 50.9 but rose to 51.3
10:00 Construction spending for April was expecting to rise to 0.2% from negative 0.2% prior but instead it fell to -0.1%
10:00 ISM manufacturing for May was expected to rise to 49.6% from 49.2% but fell instead to 48.7%
Auto Sales are released during the morning were expected to be around 15.9 million units but came in at 15.7 million
Tuesday:
10:00 Factory orders fell to 0.7% as expected
10:00 Job openings are dipped lower than expected to 8.1 million from 8.4 million.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment came in lower than expected at 152,000
9:45 S&P flash services PMI was unchanged at 54.8
10:00 ISM services for May rose to 53.8% the third straight rise in this indicator
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in higher than expected at 229,000
8:30 US Productivity for first quarter was expected to be flat at 0.0% but came in at 0.2%
8:30 Trade deficit was expected to rise to -$76.5 billion but was higher at -$74.6 billion
Friday:
8:30 May Non-Farm Payroll Report is expected to show a rise to 190,000 from 175,000
8:30 Unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.9%
8:30 Hourly wages are estimated at 0.2%
8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year estimated at 3.9%
10:00 Wholesale inventories are expected at 0.2%
3:00 Consumer credit is expected to rise to $10.2 billion from $6.3 billion.