Stock Market Outlook For Fri Jun 27 2025 – Morning Dip Likely But Still Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday stocks continued to climb. Comments on a new Fed Chair coming in May 2026 who would be more aligned with Trump on interest rates, helped to propel stocks higher on Thursday. Both the S&P and NASDAQ are sitting just below new all-time highs.

The S&P closed up 48 points to 6141 on 5.4 billion shares. 81% of al volume was to the upside as investors believe a break out to new all-time highs is the next focus for investors.

The NASDAQ rose 194 points to close at 20,167. This is just below the 52 week high of 20204 made on Dec 16 2024.

Lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Thu Jun 26 2025 to see whether the indexes will end at new all-time highs on Friday.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jun 26 2025

The index closed above the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5996 which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5793 which is bullish. The 50 day is above the 200 day moving average for a 4th up signal. This wiped out the 2nd down signal from March. Only one down signal remains from March 7. The 50 day is now ready to move above the 100 day which will end the only remaining down signal from March 7.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5815 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5726 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day and turning lower which is bullish at present. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is showing signs of ending shortly with stocks moving higher.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jun 26 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jun 27 2025 

Pending home sales on Thursday came in higher than estimated, at 1.8% which was the best showing in months.

The SPX closed above the 6000 valuation again on Thursday. This is the fourth straight day above 6000.

The technical indicators are showing stocks are moving into overbought readings but only slightly. There is still room to move higher although an early morning dip is likely today.

On Friday the SPX will end the day higher.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 S&P flash services PMI icame in as expected at 53.1

9:45 S&P flash manufacturing PMI came in as estimated at 52.0

10:00 Existing home sales for May rose more than estimated, reaching 4.03 million versus 4.0 million prior

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities is dipped far more than expected, coming in at 3.4%

10:00 Consumer confidence for June fell to 93.0 which was unexpected

10:00 Fed Chair Powell testifies to House Financial Service Committee

Wednesday:

10:00 New home sales were worse than estimated, coming in at 623,000.

Thursday:

8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods was $96.6 billion, another month of positive trade

8:30 Advanced retail inventories came in as estimated at -0.1%

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in lower than estimated at 236,000

8:30 Durable-goods orders jumped to 16.4%

8:30 GDP slipped to -0.5%

10:00 Pending home sales were higher than estimated at 1.8%

Friday:

10:00 Consumer sentiment is estimated to remain unchanged at 60.5

8:30 Personal income is estimated to rise 0.3%

8:30 Personal spending is estimated to rise just 0.1%

8:30 PCE Index is estimated to remain unchanged at 0.1%

8:30 PCE year-over-year is estimated at 2.3%, up slightly from 2.1% prior

8:30 Core PCE index is estimated to remain unchanged at 0.1%

8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated to rise slightly to 2.6% from 2.5% prior.