Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed Jun 18 2025 stocks were under selling pressure from two fronts. The first was the escalation of fighting between Iran and Israel with growing concerns of US involvement a possibility. The second was from the Federal Reserve Chair, Powell who indicated the Fed is concerned about the chance inflation may pick up due to the impact of tariffs. Stocks slipped in what was a choppy session but toward the close the S&P managed almost a full recovery, closing down just under 2 points at 5980 and the NASDAQ closed up 25 points at 19546.
Volume on the S&P was 5.3 billion shares with 50% of the volume trading higher. The NASDAQ saw 8 billion shares traded with 64% of that volume, rising.
Thu Jun 19 2025 saw no trading with Juneteenth Day. For Friday, the day could start lower as investors continue to weigh the potential impact of fighting in the Middle East
Lets review the SPX technical indicators from the close on Wed Jun 18 2025 to see what we should expect for Fri Jun 20 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed Jun 18 2025
The index closed above all major moving averages which is bullish but it has been sliding lower for the past 3 trading days.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Friday although there is a shadow at the close which often indicates a bounce is likely.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5950 which is bullish but the rally of the 21 day is almost over as of Wednesday’s close.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5717 which is bullish. The 50 day is above the 200 day moving average for a 4th up signal. This wiped out the 2nd down signal from March. Only one day signal remains from March 7.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5788 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5709 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is above the 100 day and moving sideways which is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways within the Bollinger Bands Squeeze which is also neutral.
For Fri Jun 20 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish with the closing candlestick indicating a lower close is expected for Friday.
SPX 1stocm review of Wed Jun 18 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Fri May 30. The down signal was much stronger at the close on Wed Jun 18 2025.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling signaling Friday will end lower. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5975 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5925 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5850 is resistance |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
| 5650 is support |
| 5630 is support |
| 5600 is support |
| 5550 is support |
| 5500 is support |
| 5475 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jun 20 2025
The technical indicators are all pointing lower for Friday. A bounce is probably, perhaps at the start of the day or mid-morning but all the indicators are showing weakness is continuing and the rally is losing traction.
More signals are pointing lower for Friday than those that are bullish. A new up signal from the 50 day moving average climbing above the 200 day was good to see on Wednesday, but that signal was shadowed by the large number of down signals from all the technical indicators.
On Wednesday the home building statistics were poor and continue to show weakness. The fact the Fed did not lower interest rates yet again on Wednesday won’t help the builders and home sellers. Home buyers remain reluctant to step into new mortgages as interest rates remain high. This is weighing on the economy and at some point we could see a larger impact than what we have seen for the first 6 months of the year.
For Fri Jun 20 2025 watch for a weak open and then a bounce attempt that will fail unless there is a resolution to the Israel-Iran fighting. The close will be lower without a resolution.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey was worse than estimated coming in at -16
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales fell more than estimated to -0.9%
8:30 Import price index was flat at 0.0%
9:15 Industrial production was lower than estimated at -0.2%
9:15 Capacity utilization was lower than estimated at 77.4%77.7%
10:00 Business inventories came in as expected at 0.0%
10:00 Home builder confidence index was lower than expected coming in at 32
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts came in well below estimates, at 1.26 million
8:30 Building permits were lower at 1.39 million
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims fell by just 1,000 to 245,000
2:00 FOMC interest rate decision came in with no change
2:30 Fed Chair Powell has a news conference was more hawkish on concerns over potential rising inflation
Thursday:
Holiday
Friday:
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey is estimated to rise to -2.0% from -4.0% prior
10:00 Leading economic indicators are expected to rise to -0.1% from -1.0% prior
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