Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jun 14 2019 – Strong Start, Choppy, Positive Close

On Thursday the S&P had a choppy session but in the end it closed higher at 2891.64 and kept the bullish signals intact.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Jun 13 2019 

On Thursday the index closed above the 50 day moving average for a third day and left behind a weak bullish candlestick.

There is still one sell signal in play.

Note that the 21 day moving average is turning back up along with the Upper Bollinger Band.  This signals more upside ahead for the index.

Aside from the one sell signal, the chart is very bullish with the major moving averages climbing higher.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jun 13 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thursday June 6. The up signal was stronger again on Thursday but is showing signals that indicate a slowing of the up signal.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is unchanged.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic signal is pointing down for stocks and is overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is sideways and it too is overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is in a slight dip, which could be signaling a weak day ahead either for Friday or the start of next week.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2950 is resistance

2900 is resistance

2860 is light support

2830 is light support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Jun 14 2019 

For Friday the signals are still pointing higher but there are some readings suggesting the rally after just a couple of days is slowing.

Friday could start strong but finish weak.

Overall though the outlook is still higher for the indexes for Friday, although the start of next week could be a bit lower.

For Friday then, look for a positive start, some selling, another push attempt to 2900 and then choppy, sideways trading to a positive close.

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