For Friday the jobs numbers are pivotal. If numbers are below estimates stocks should continue the present rally. If numbers are higher than expected, stocks could fall.
Thursday was a strong day ahead of the June non-farm payroll numbers as many investors are anticipating inflation is already peaking. That is questionable at best but it’s great to see stocks move higher.
The S&P rose 57 points for a 1.5% gain to close at 3902. The NASDAQ rose 259 points to end the day at 11,621.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thursday to see what they are predicting for Friday.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Jul 7 2022
On Thursday the closing candlestick is bullish and closed above the 21 day moving average. This is also bullish.
The Upper Bollinger Band continues collapsing and the Lower Bollinger Band is rising. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is likely either starting Friday or on Monday. If the rally continues, the squeeze may signal a higher move for stocks next week.
All the moving averages are falling with the 50 and 21 day now falling rapidly.
There are now a few bullish signs for Friday. There are 4 down signals still in place and there have been no up signals since the start of April.
The chart is 80% bearish for Friday.
Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 7 2022
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday June 27. On Thursday the up signal gained strength as did the MACD histogram.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and into overbought readings.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place for Friday.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is nearing overbought readings.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4200 is light resistance
4150 is light resistance
4100 is light resistance
4050 is light resistance
4025 is light resistance
4000 is strong resistance
3975 is light resistance and is a decline of 17.5%
3900 is light resistance and is a decline of 19%
3850 is light resistance and is a decline of 20%
3825 is light support
3800 is good support.
3775 is light support
3750 is light support
3730 is light support
3700 is good support
3675 is light support
3650 is light support
3625 is light support
3600 is good support and is a decline of 25%
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Jul 8 2022
The technical indicators are more bullish again at the close on Thursday. The S&P chart is now 80% bearish. For Friday the June Non-farm Payroll Numbers due out at 8:30 will have the most effect. After the morning however, the technical indicators will have more influence and at present they are indicating that the rally should continue Friday.
Note in the market moving events below that the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were slightly higher than estimates. This was seen as a bullish signal for investors.
Potential Market Moving Events
For the first week of July the biggest event in on Friday when the June unemployment report is released.
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were 235,000 which was above estimates of 230,000 and above the prior week’s 231,000.
Friday:
8:30 June nonfarm payroll report are expected to show 250,000 jobs created. A high number may be seen as bearish for stocks. A lower number will be seen as bullish.
Stock Market Outlook Archives
Stock Market Outlook For Wed May 6 2026 – Choppy But Higher Still
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue May 5 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Tue May 5 2026 – Overbought and Lower
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon May 4 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Mon May 4 2026 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri May 1 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Fri May 1 2026 – Overbought But Higher
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 30 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Thu Apr 30 2026 – Dips Likely Possible Lower Close
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 29 2026
Stock Market Outlook For Wed Apr 29 2026 – Choppy But Higher Ahead Of More Earnings
Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 28 2026
