Stock Market Outlook For Fri Jul 18 2025 – Higher Open and Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thu Jul 17 2025 markets moved higher as signs continue to point to the consumer continuing to buy. The economy is doing better than analysts have been predicting. The Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in lower than anticipated while retails sales jumped higher than expected. The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey came in at a robust 15.9% versus -4.0% prior and -1.0% estimated.

The SPX closed up 33 points to another new high, ending the day at 6297. The NASDAQ rose 155 points to end the day at 20,885, also a new high.

With indexes pushing to new highs, Friday’s outlook is better than analysts are predicting.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Thu Jul 17 2025 to see where the indexes are headed on Fri Jul 18 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jul 17 2025

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band for the 9th day.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6176 which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6014 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5920 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5793 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.

The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Friday.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 17 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 18 2025 

For Fri Jul 18 2025 the day will start with investors reactinbg to stronger than expected earnings from Netflix. After hours on Thursday they reported their latest earnings and investors sold the stock lower. I think we will find the stock moving higher intraday on Friday once investors shift through the earnings reports.

I expect Friday to open higher, dip slightly in the morning and then move higher into the close ahead of the weekend.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

no events are scheduled

Tuesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index for Junecame in at 0.3% as estimated

8:30 CPI year-over-year rose to 2.7% from 2.4%

8:30 Core CPI is dipped to 0.2% from 0.3% prior.

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year rose to 2.9% up from 2.8% prior.

8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey for July came in at 5.5, up from -16.0 prior

Wednesday:

8:30 Producer Price Index fell to 0.0% which was below estimates

8:30 Core PPI came in at 0.0% which was below estimates of 0.2%

8:30 PPI year-over-year came in lower than estimated, at 2.3%.

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year came in lower than estimated at 2.5%

9:15 Industrial production did not dip but rose 0.3%

9:15 Capacity utilization rose beyond estimates to 77.6%.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims fell to 221,000

8:30 US Retail Sales were stronger than expected coming in at 0.6%

8:30 Import price index was lower than estimated at 0.1%

10:00 Business inventories were unchanged at 0.0%

10:00 Home builder confidence index is estimated rose to just 33 from 32

Friday:

8:30 Housing Starts are expected to rise to 1.3 million

8:30 Building permits are expected to remain steady at 1.39 million

10:00 Consumer sentiment is expected to come in slightly higher at 61.8.