Prior Trading Day Summary:
On Wed Jul 9 2025 investors continued with their buying of large cap stocks with a large percentage of the trades in the so-called Magnificent 7 stocks.
The SPX rose 17 points to 6,280 on 5.4 billion shares traded. 64% of all stocks were rising. The S&P made a new high again today.
The NASDAQ rose 19 points to another new high of 20630 on 10.1 billion shares traded. This is the second back-to-back day of 10 billion shares traded.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Thu Jul 10 2025 to see what they predict for Fri Jul 11 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jul 10 2025
The index closed just below the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday but there is a long shadow which usually is a signal for a lower open.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6118 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5949 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5883 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5769 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising but still below the 50 day moving average. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into Friday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 10 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu June 26. On Thu Jul 10 2025 the up signal lost more strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling signaling further weakness.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising which signals a higher close on Friday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is resistance |
| 6075 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is support |
| 5990 is support |
| 5975 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5785 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jul 11 2025
For Friday the technical indicators are advising investors to prepare for a lower open. As well news of President Trump imposing a 35% tariff on Canada as of Aug 1, should weigh on stocks in the morning.
The MACD technical indicator is losing strength every day but remains positive. The Ultimate Oscillator is also showing weakness. Basically the technical indicators are flashing signs to investors that despite the new highs, weakness is growing and the market could turn choppier by next week. At the same time last week’s June employment report was better than expected and today’s Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims was also better than expected. Both are pointing to an economy that is stronger than analysts keep predicting. Eventually there will be a recession but the signals are not supporting a recession any time soon. That probably means no Fed rate cut in July or August.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
no events are scheduled
Tuesday:
6:00 NFIB optimism index was slightly lower at 98.6
3:00 Consumer credit was better than expected, coming in at $5.1 billion, roughly half of what was estimated.
Wednesday:
10:00 Wholesale inventories came in as estimated at -0.3%.
2:00 Latest FOMC minutes held no surprises
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were lower than expected at 277,000 which continues to point to a stronger economy than many analysts are predicting.
Friday:
2:00 Monthly Federal Budget is estimated to come in as a deficit at -$20.5 billion which is better than the prior -$66 billion.