Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 18 2019 – Overbought But Still Up

Thursday saw a lot of sideways action but the only good dip of the day, which was at the open, was quickly snapped up. Buyers are still watching and looking for opportunities to enter trades. The close saw all 3 indexes higher again.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Jan 17 2019 

The S&P chart is still bearish with 6 sell signals. Meanwhile the 21, 50 and 100 day moving averages are turning back up which could be an early signal for the bulls. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning back up and could move above the 100 day moving average within a day. This is a bullish sign.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday.

The S&P closed above the 50 day moving average on Thursday, another bullish signal.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jan 17 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and rising.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Fri Jan 4 2019. That up signal was a bit stronger on Thursday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is falling and overbought.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a neutral signal in place for Friday and is overbought.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and it too is signaling overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

2900 was support – this will be strong resistance

2860 was support – this will be resistance

2830 was light support and will be light resistance

2800 is strong resistance

2795 is light resistance

2745 to 2750 is light resistance

2725 is light resistance

2700 is resistance

2675 is light resistance

2650 is light resistance

2620 is light resistance

2600 is support.

There was good support at the 2550 level which is back to being support.

The 2500 level is support.

The S&P has light support at 2480 and better support at 2450.

There is good support at 2425.

Below that there is some support at 2400, 2380, 2350.

2300 has the most support at present but would represent a full correction of 641 points as a drop to this level would be 21% and just 5% away from a full bear market signal ending the bull market from 2009.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Jan 18 2019 

For Friday the technical indicators are almost all overbought. Despite this the outlook remains higher for another day on Friday. The S&P should be able to reach 2650 on Friday but expect selling to keep the SPX choppy. By the close though we should see another higher close. Next week we should see some down days as the market works out the overbought condition.

Stock Market Outlook Archives

Stock Market Outlook for Fri May 3 2024 – All About The April Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday investors pushed stocks higher for the second time this week, ahead of Friday's April jobs report. The S&P gained gained 45 points to close ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 2 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu May 2 2024 discuss the FOMC interest rate decision and Fed's news conference. There are a large number of trades ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 2 2024 – Potential Bounce But Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors moved stocks higher during the Fed's news conference but then sold those same stocks lower in the final half hour in a wild ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 1 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed May 1 2024 discuss the outlook for the start of May. There are a large number of trades outlined for ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed May 1 2024 – Bounce But Lower – Fed Interest Rate Decision

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw stocks tumble as investors decided to take profits from the recent rally. Economic reports on Tuesday did not favor the Fed cutting interest rates ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Apr 30 2024 discuss the outlook for the final trading day of the month and the start of May. There ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Apr 30 2024 – Dips Likely – Flat To Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Monday saw the index trade choppily in a sideways trend until the final hour when the SPX dipped down below 5100 but then found buyers and ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Apr 29 2024 discuss the outlook for the final week of April. There are a large number of trades outlined ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Apr 29 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: Friday saw investors continue the rally despite the PCE number showing far more weakness than expected. The rally on Friday though saw lower volumes which could ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Apr 26 2024 discuss the outlook following the surprisingly low GDP and strong earnings from Microsoft, Alphabet and others on ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 26 2024 – Higher and Positive Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Thursday's GDP number came in much lower than expected at 1.6%. This stunned analysts and investors and the market plunged at the start of the day. ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Apr 25 2024 discuss the expected sell-off and weakness after the recent bounce in equities. There are a large number ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Apr 25 2024 – Weakness and Lower

Prior Trading Day Summary: Wednesday saw the rally stall. With the rally stalling investors took profits which weighed on stocks. The close saw the SPX up just 1 point at ....... Read More

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Apr 24 2024 discuss the second bounce on Tuesday and the outlook for the remainder of the week. There are ....... Read More

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Apr 24 2024 – Some Weakness But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: Tuesday saw the rally continue for a second day with rising up volume, wider market breadth and a higher gain. All of this is bullish. Much ....... Read More