FullyInformed.com

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 17 2025 – A Little Weakness But Still Higher

Jan 16, 2025 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook A Bit of Weakness But Still HigherPrior Trading Day Summary:

Thursday saw investors taking profits after Wednesday’s huge rally. In the final hour of trading the SPX was positive until sellers pushed back, taking profits and sending the SPX lower by 12 points to end the day at 5937. Volume was lower by 300 million shares but new highs were 73 versus 25 new lows. 63% of all volume was advancing and 61% of all stocks were higher.

The NASDAQ saw more selling than the SPX. Volume was lower to 7.2 billion shares with 113 new lows versus 82 new highs. 57% of all volume through was advancing and 50% of stocks were rising by the close. The day ended with a loss of 123 points to end the day at 19,338.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Thu Jan 16 2025 to see what to expect for the final trading day of the week, with Monday seeing no trading due to Martin Luther King Day.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jan 16 2025

The index failed to break above the 50 day moving average but closed at the 21 day which is neutral to bullish.

The closing candlestick is signaling that Friday will see some selling but there is a chance for a positive close.

The 21 day moving average fell back to 5933 which is bearish. It fell below the 50 day moving average Monday Jan 13 which is a down signal.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5962 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5821which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5591 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is neutral.. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.

For Friday, the SPX chart is slightly more bullish than bearish.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Jan 15 2025


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tuesday Dec 10 2024 . The down signal lost most of its strength on Thu Jan 16 2025.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is still in an uptrend although it dipped slightly on Thursday.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and continuing higher.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and signaling Friday will end lower.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

6100 is strong resistance
6090 is resistance
6070 is resistance
6050 is resistance
6025 is resistance
6015 is resistance
6000 is resistance
5990 is resistance
5970 is resistance
5950 is resistance
5900 is support
5890 is support
5875 is support
5850 is support
5830 is support
5800 is support
5780 is support
5725 is support
5700 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Fri Jan 17 2025 

On Thursday investors were shaken a bit by the higher than expected initial jobless claims that rose to 217,000, well above estimates. At the same time, retail sales were lower at 0.4%. Economic signals were mixed on Thursday but bond yields didn’t move by much which should have helped stocks more than it did.

For Friday stocks do not look as strong as they did on Wednesday afternoon. Profit-taking in many stocks on Thursday saw some bigger dips than usual for simple profit-taking. Monday is a holiday and there is no trading. Often on the day before Martin Luther King Day, stocks struggle and often close flat.

Technical indicators are still primarily showing strength to the upside particularly with the MACD down signal, almost gone as of Thursday’s close. We could see an up signal early next week but trading volumes need to rise. Until then stocks may wander, but a positive close, even a slight one, is expected for Friday.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

2:00 Monthly US Federal budget rose to -$75 billion

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index rose more than expected to 105.1

8:30 Producer Price Index for Dec fell to 0.2%

8:30 Core PPI surprised by staying at 0.1% and not rising

8:30 PPI year-over-year rose more than estimated to 3.3%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year fell back to 3.3% another surprise

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer Price Index rose to 0.4% from 0.3%

8:30 CPI year-over-year rose as estimated to 2.9% from 2.7%

8:30 Core CPI slipped to 0.2% from 0.3% prior

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year slipped to 3.2% from 3.3% prior

2:00 Fed’s Beige Book was not a concern

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose higher than estimated to 217,000

8:30 Retail sales dipped lower than estimated to 0.4%

8:30 Import price index was unchanged at 0.1%

10:00 Business inventories were unchanged at 0.1%

10:00 Home Builder confidence index rose higher than estimates to 47 from 46 prior

Friday:

8:30 Housing starts are estimated at 1.33 million, up from 1.29 million

8:30 Building permits are estimated to have fallen to 1.46 million from 1.51 million prior

9:15 industrial production is estimated to rise to 0.2% from -0.1% prior

9:15 Capacity utilization is estimated to have risen to 77% from 76.8% prior

 


Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 12 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 12 2025 review trading action on Tuesday. Stocks discussed include McDonalds Stock (MCD), DoorDash Stock (DASH), Coca Cola Stock (KO), Merck Stock (MRK), Tesla Stock (TSLA), IWM ETF, Robin …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Feb 12 2025 – Choppy – Dips Likely But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday stocks were choppy as Fed Chair Powell testified in front of Congress. In the end though the testimony offered nothing new and perhaps more important, no new worries. The close saw the SPX up …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 11 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 11 2025 review the rally from Monday. Stocks discussed include VIX ETF, Monday.com Stock (MNDY), McDonalds Stock (MCD), Palantir Stock (PLTR). IWM ETF, Coca Cola Stock (KO), Merck Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 11 2025 – Choppy But Higher Still

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks regained their footings and buyers returned after Friday’s down day. Trading was reasonably strong and the SPX stayed in a tight trading range with a low around 6047 and high of 6071. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Feb 10 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Feb 10 2025 review the outlook for the start of the second week of February. Stocks discussed include VIX ETF, McDonalds Stock (MCD), Shopify Stock (SHOP) and more. The morning …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Feb 10 2025 – Weakness But Higher Close Expected

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday stocks fell after the January non-farm payroll report showed a decline in employment to 143,000 versus 169,000 expected. The unemployment rate however fell to 4.0%. The SPX ended the day down 57 points and …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 7 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Feb 7 2025 review the outlook for Friday and the January payroll numbers. Stocks discussed include VIX ETF, Amazon.com Stock (AMZN), Cloudflare Stock (NET), McDonalds Stock (MCD) and more. The …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 7 2025 – All About The January Jobs Report

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday stocks rose to close modestly higher ahead of Friday’s non-farm payroll report. The SPX ended up 22 points at 6083 on 4.9 billion shares traded. only 48% of stocks were rising by the close …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 6 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Feb 6 2025 review the outlook as we head into the January employment report on Friday before the open. There are a large number of trades outlined today. Stocks discussed …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Feb 6 2025 – Choppy Dips Possible But Still Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday stocks had a choppy day but kept a bullish bias. By the close the majority of the SPX and NASDAQ were moving higher despite a plunge in Alphabet Stock (GOOGL) and Advanced Micro Devices …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Feb 5 2025 – Choppy With A Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday stocks staged a rebound bounce as investors cheered the tariffs with Mexico and China being delayed 30 days. The SPX rose 43 points wiping out yesterday’s 45 point loss. The NASDAQ rose 262 points, …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 5 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Feb 5 2025 review Tuesday’s bounce. Stocks discussed include Clorox Stock (CLX), Alphabet Stock (GOOGL), Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock (CMG), ARM Stock (ARM), Eli Lilly Stock (LLY) and more. The …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 4 2025

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Feb 4 2025 review the sell-off on Monday and the outlook for today. Stocks discussed include Palantir Tech Stock (PLTR), NXP Semiconductor Stock (NXPI), Uber Tech Stock (UBER), Walt Disney …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Feb 4 2025 – Possible Bounce But Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday stocks reacted negatively to news of President Trump placing tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China. By the end of the day the news had changed to a 30 day pause for Mexico and Canada …

Subscribe For The Latest News