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Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 9 2024 – Morning Weakness Possible But Higher Close

Feb 8, 2024 | Stock Market Outlook

Stock Market Outlook Morning Weakness Possible But Higher ClosePrior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday trading was choppy with the SPX stuck in a sideways pattern. Intraday the index touched 5000 but closed just below it at 4997.

The NASDAQ gained 37 points and closed at 15793.

Thursday saw lower volume on the SPX of 4.4 billion shares but the NASDAQ jumped to 5.8 billion shares.

Let’s review Thursday’s closing technical indicators to see if we can expect the SPX to close above 5000 for the first time on Friday.


Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Feb 8 2024

The index closed at the Upper Bollinger Band which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday but there is a shadow which indicates Friday will see dips, probably in the morning.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is above the 4875 valuation.

The 50 day moving average is rising and above 4700 which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is above 4450 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising as is the Upper Bollinger Band. At present this is bullish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Friday with just the closing candlestick a bit bearish.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Feb 8 2024


Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Jan 23 2024. On Thu Feb 8 2024 the up signal gained strength.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is overbought.

  • Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and positive. It is overbought.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising signaling Friday may see a close just above 5000.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels

5025 is resistance
5010 is resistance
5000 is resistance
4990 is resistance
4975 is resistance
4950 is resistance
4925 is resistance
4915 is resistance
4900 is resistance
4875 is resistance
4850 is resistance
4825 is resistance
4815 is resistance
4800 is support
4780 is support
4750 is support
4720 is support
4700 is support
4675 is support
4650 is support
4625 is support
4600 is support
4590 is support
4575 is light support
4565 is light support
4550 is support
4500 is support


Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 9 2024 

The technical indicators are a bit mixed on Thursday by the close.

On Friday investors should expect some dips with the SPX but there is a strong chance for a close just above 5000.

On Friday, dips are opportunities to setup trades. There are no economic reports that should impact stocks on Friday.


Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

There are not as many events this week that will impact stocks. That should help the bulls.

Monday:

9:45 Final service PMI is expected to be unchanged at 52.9 but came in slightly lower at 52.5

10:00 ISM services is expected at 52.0% but rose slightly to 52.5%

Tuesday:

4 Fed Presidents speak during the day but there are no economic reports to move the markets. This could support the bulls.

Wednesday:

8:30 Trade deficit is estimated at $62.1 billion but came in at a surprising -$62.2 billion.

3:00 Consumer credit is expected to decline to $15 billion but declined to $1.5 billion.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were expected to be 220,000 but came in at 218,000

10:00 Wholesale inventories was expected at 0.3% but came in at 0.4%

Friday:

8:30 CPI seasonal revisions






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