Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 2 2024 – All About The January Non-Farm Payroll Report

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday investors returned to the market following selling the same stocks on Wednesday. The bounce in stocks recovered more than 50% of the losses for both the SPX and NASDAQ.

The SPX recovered 60 points after losing 79 points on Wednesday. The index closed at 4906.

The NASDAQ rose 197 points after losing 3443 points on Wednesday. The index closed at 15,361.

The bounce on Thursday has a good chance to continue Friday following exceptional earnings from Amazon.com Stock (AMZN) and Meta Stock (META) on Thursday after the close.

With the January non-farm payroll numbers the primary focus at the open, the numbers will have to be far worse than expected to stop a further rally on Friday.

Let’s review Thursday’s closing technical indicators to see what to expect for Fri Feb 2 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Feb 1 2024

The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and well above the 21 day moving average. This is bullish.

The 21 day moving average is moving higher which is bullish. It is above the 4800 valuation.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday.

The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day and still climbing which is bullish.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish. The 200 day is above the 4400 on the SPX which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day moving average but the Upper Bollinger Bandis is back climbing which is bullish.

The S&P chart is bullish for Friday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Feb 1 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 2 2024 

For Friday the technical indicators are split after Thursday’s big bounce. Some up signals have returned although the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence is almost ready for a down signal.

Earnings from Meta Stock (META) and Amazon.com Stock (AMZN) were excellent on Thursday after hours and those stocks rose dramatically. Apple STock slipped but only by a few dollars. On Friday we should see Meta and Amazon.com stocks move higher. Apple stock may retest $180.

The opening should be all about the January unemployment report but while it could impact stocks in the morning or near the open, it is earnings that will boost the day on Friday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

There are many events this week that could impact stocks, in particular the Fed on Wednesday and the Non-Farm Payroll report on Friday.

Monday:

No reports are expected

Tuesday:

9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to rise to 5.7% but rose to 5.4%

10:00 Job openings are expected to be unchanged at 8.8 million but rose to 9 million continuing to show a strong labour market.

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to rise to 115 but it dipped slightly to 114.8

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment is expected to come in at 150,000 but came in at 107,000 far lower than expected

2:00 Fed interest rate-decision is expected to hold rates steady

2:30 Fed Chair Powell’s press conference which could be the main market moving event for Wednesday.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to come in at 214,000 but came in at 224,000.

8:30 Productivity is expected to come in a 2.5% for the fourth quarter but came in at 3.3%.

9:45 Manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.1 but came in at 50.7

10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected at 47.2% but came in at 49.1%

10:00 Construction spending is estimated at 0.5% but came in at 0.9%

Auto sales some time during the day are expected to be 15.2 million

Friday:

8:30 Non-farm payroll is expected to come in at 185,000

8:30 Unemployment rate is expected at 3.8%

8:30 Hourly wages are expected to slip to 0.3%

10:00 Factory orders are expected to fall to 0.2%

10:00 Consumer sentiment is expected at 79.0