Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 14 2025 – Up Signal – Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday the PPI numbers came in slightly below estimates which assisted stocks in moving higher after Wednesday’s stronger than expected CPI numbers. Comments in the afternoon from the White House on tariffs and their implementation seemed less hawkish and that created an afternoon rally which sent the SPX from 6072 to 6115 by the close.

By the close the SPX was up 63 points to close at 6115. This was the highest point day since December 24. 74% of all volume was trading higher and 76% of all stocks were climbing.

The NASDAQ closed up 295 points to close at 19.945. 71% of all stocks were climbing by the close.

The strength of the afternoon rally changed many of the technical indicators including the MACD down signal. Instead of confirming the down signal, the MACD indicator was signaling higher by the end of the day.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Thu Feb 13 2025 to see what to expect for Fri Feb 14 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Feb 13 2025

The index closed above all moving averages and above the high from Thursday last week. This is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday.

The 21 day moving average is continuing to move above the 50 day moving average which is a major up signal.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6046 which is bullish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6006 which is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5896 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5672 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish. If this trend continues we will see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze which on Thursday seems to indicate a higher move for the SPX.

For Friday the SPX chart is bullish.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Feb 13 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Feb 14 2025 

For Friday the technical indicators have switched back to positive following Thursday’s strong rally. The important MACD signal is pointing higher at the close on Thursday.

On Friday we get retail sales which are expected to be slightly lower. As long as retail sales are not too strong, the index should be able to move higher today.

For Friday, the outlook is for a higher day although dips are likely intraday.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

No events

Tuesday:

10:00 Fed Chair Powell testifies to Congress

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer prince index rose 0.5% versus 0.3% estimated

8:30 CPI year-over-year rose to 3% from 2.9% prior

8:30 Core CPI rose to 0.4% from 0.2% prior

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year rose to 3.3% from 3.2% prior

10:00 Fed Chair Powell continues testimony to Congress

2:00 Monthly federal budget came in at 129$ billion

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in at 213,000 from 219,000 prior.

8:30 Producer Price Index rose to 0.4% from 0.5% prior

8:30 Core PPI is rose to 0.3% from 0.4% prior

8:30 PPI year-over-year came in at 3.5% unchanged from last month.

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year was slightly higher at 3.4% but still below the 3.5% from December’s reading.

Friday:

8:30 Import price index is estimated to rise to 0.3% from 0.1% prior

8:30 US Retail sales are expected to dip to -0.2% from0.4% prior

9:15 Industrial production is estimated to dip to 0.3% from 0.9% prior

9:15 Capacity utilization car in at .7% from 77.6% prior

10:00 Capacity utilizati0n came in at 77.7%