Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 8 2023 – All About November Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday stocks opened higher and spent the day climbing. All of this right after an unconfirmed down signal from the MACD technical indicator.

The day ended with the S&P up 36 points to close at 4585 just 15 points from 4600. Volume was light at 3.9 billion shares traded but 64% of all stocks were rising on the S&P.

The NASDAQ ended the day up 193 points, closing at 14,339. For the NASDAQ this was the best day for stocks since Nov 14. Volume rose to 5.8 billion.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Dec 7 2023 to see what to expect for Fri Dec 8 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Dec 7 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and was still below the Upper Bollinger Band. The 21 day moving average is back rising which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday.

The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is rising sharply and is at the 50 day moving average. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is underway which could see stocks move lower or higher. At present the signals are lower for the index before a rebound but the November payroll numbers could be the impetus to the next move in the market.

The S&P chart is still more bullish than bearish with a number of cautionary signals to be aware of, in particular the rapidly rising Lower Bollinger Band.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Dec 7 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 8 2023 

For Friday the November Non-Farm Payroll Numbers, released at 8:30 today, will probably be the next catalyst for stocks, up or down.

What we have seen over the past 10 trading days is that the 4550 level has become strong support for the market. Thursday’s rally was more about positioning ahead of the jobs numbers than it was a belief by investors that stocks are ready to continue their advance.

The technical indicators are mixed for the start of Friday with some still indicating weakness and others pointing to a higher day on Friday. All of this will depend on the jobs numbers this morning.

Historically the first week of December has been positive 72% of the time since I have kept records from 1974. At present the S&P is down 4 points on the week and the NASDAQ is up 35 points.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Major economic events this week are US services PMI on Tuesday and the big event is the November non-farm payroll report due out on today before the open.

Monday:

10:00 Factory orders are expected to drop to -3.5% from a positive 2.8%. They fell to -3.6% which added to the selling on Monday.

Tuesday:

9:45 S&P services PMI is expected to be unchanged at 50.8.

10:00 ISM services are estimated to climb to 52.4% from 51.8%. It climbed to 52.7%

10:00 Job openings are expected to do slip to 9.4 million from 9.6 million prior. They came in at 8.7 million.

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP Employment is expected to be 128,000 came in at 103,000

8:30 Productivity is expected to be 4.9% but came in at 5.2%

8:30 Trade deficit is expected to be -$64.1 billion but was -64.3 billion.

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to be 222,000. They came in at 220,000 which supported today’s rally.

10:00 Whole inventories are expect to remain unchanged at -0.2% but came in at -0.4%

3:00 Consumer credit is expected to fall to $8.0 billion. Instead it came in at $5.2 billion which was better than analysts had expected.

Friday:

8:30 November Non-Farm Payroll is expected to come in at 190,000

8:30 Unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%

8:30 Hourly wages are expected to rise to 0.3% from 0.2%

8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year are expected to dip slightly to 4% from 4.1%

10:00 Consumer sentiment is expected to rise to 62.4 from 61.3