Prior Trading Day Summary:
Thursday saw a weak bounce attempt which saw the opening high of 5935 within a couple of minutes and from there the index spent the day drifting lower. Every rally higher ran into sellers. By the close the SPX and NASDAQ were both lower, having given up the day’s rally attempt.
The S&P closed down just 5 points at 5867. The NASDAQ closed down 20 points at 19,372.
Volumes were lower today with the S&P trading 5 billion shares with 65% of all stocks falling lower. There were 259 new 52 week lows and just 14 new highs.
The NASDAQ traded 2 billion less shares at 8.3 billion. 56% of all stocks on the NASDAQ ended lower. There were 346 new 52 week lows but 49 new highs, which considering the selling strength, was fairly good.
Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Thu Dec 19 2024 to see what to expect tomorrow, Fri Dec 20 2024 to end the week.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Dec 19 2024
The index closed below the 21 and 50 day moving averages and the Lower Bollinger Band for a second day. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish for Friday but also signals there is a chance for a bounce on Friday to perhaps above the 50 day moving average.
The 21 day moving average is lower at 6017. This is bearish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5924. The higher move is just 2 points and signals the plunge has turned the outlook bearish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5780. The higher move is just 2 points and signals the plunge has turned the outlook bearish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5528 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day and turning lower which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is back climbing which is bullish.
The S&P chart is more bearish than bullish for Friday.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Dec 19 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and sharply negative. It is oversold.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tuesday Dec 10 2024 . The down signal was stronger at the close on Thursday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and oversold.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal and is oversold.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling sharply and oversold.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and oversold. It is signaling Friday will end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6100 is strong resistance |
| 6090 is resistance |
| 6070 is resistance |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is resistance |
| 5890 is support |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5825 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 20 2024
The loss of the bounce attempt on Thursday usually signals the index needs more time before a stronger bounce. That means a second bounce attempt could happen but is likely to hold on Friday.
On Friday we get the latest Personal Consumption Expenditures index which is followed by the Fed. A hotter than expected number could pressure stocks further.
The outlook for Friday is for more selling and weakness with a possible second bounce attempt but a lower close.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
8:30 Empire State manufacturing survey was much worse than expecting coming in at just 0.2 versus 31.2 prior.
9:45 S&P flash US service PMI rose to 58.5 rather than slipped.
9:45 S&P flash US manufacturing PMI slipped more than estimated to 48.3 from 49.7 prior
Tuesday:
8:30 Retail sales came in higher than estimated at 0.7%
8:30 Retail sales minus autos came in lower than expected at 0.2%
9:15 Industrial production was lower than estimated at 0.1%
9:15 Capacity utilization was lower than estimated at 76.8% 77.2% from 77.1% prior
10:00 Home Builder Confidence index was unchanged at 46
Wednesday:
8:30 Housing starts came in a lot lower than estimated at 1.29 million.
8:30 Building permits were higher than estimated at 1.51 million.
2:00 FOMC interest rate announcement
3:40 Fed Chair Powell news conference
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were far less than expected at 220,000
8:30 GDP for third quarter was higher than expected at 3.1%
8:30 Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey stunned with a drop to -16.4
10:00 Existing home sales rose to 4.15 million
10:00 Leading economic indicators rose more than expected to 0.3%
Friday:
8:30 Personal income is estimated to dip to 0.4% from 0.6%
8:30 Personal spending is estimated to rise slightly to 0.5% from 0.4%
8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures index is estimated to be unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 PCE year-over-year is expected to rise slightly to 2.5% from 2.3%
8:30 Core PCE Index is estimated to dip to 0.2% from 0.3% prior
8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is estimated to rise to 2.9% from 2.8% prior
10:00 Consumer sentiment is estimated unchanged at 74.0