Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 15 2023 – Dips Possible but Bullish and Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in lighter at 202,000 rather than the anticipated 221,000. Retail sales came in at 0.3%, well above estimates of -0.1%. Both of these statistics fitted the Fed’s scenario from Wednesday’s interest rate press conference and the index opened higher.

As expected the SPX eventually fell back below 4700 in the afternoon which sparked a rally into the close. The S&P ended up 12 points for another new 52 week closing high of 4719.

The NASDAQ ended higher by 27 points to close at 14,761.

Trading volume jumped again on Thursday with the SPX trading 6.4 billion shares, the highest volume since Sept 15. The NASDAQ traded a whooping 8.2 billion shares, also the highest volume since Sep 15.

New 52 week highs soared on both indexes with the S&P reporting 378 new 52 week highs and the NASDAQ 482 new highs.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Dec 14 2023 to see what to expect for Fri Dec 15 2023.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Dec 14 2023

The index closed above all major moving averages and above the Upper Bollinger Band. This is bullish.

The 21 day moving average is rising further, which is also bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish for Friday but also signals there is a chance for a dip today. It will not end the rally but it could see a negative close on Friday.

The 50 day moving average is above the 100 day for another up signal.

The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower and the Upper Bollinger Band is turning higher, signaling the Bollinger Bands Squeeze is starting to end.

The S&P chart is more bullish although there is a signal for weakness from the closing candlestick.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Dec 14 2023

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 15 2023 

On Thursday the technical indicators have all changed their outlook. While still positive, they are showing signs that the overbought market may try to rest. Despite this though, the outlook remains bullish.

On Friday we will see dips below 4700 but even a negative close won’t change the overall trajectory. The path higher has few restrictions at present. Next week looks promising for stocks.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Major economic events this week are Consumer Price Index readings on Tuesday, the Producer Price Index from Wednesday and the latest FOMC interest rate decision also on Wednesday.

Monday:

There are no economic events that will impact markets.

Tuesday:

8:30 Consumer price index was expected to be unchanged at 0.0% but came in at 0.1%

8:30 Core CPI rose slightly to 0.3% from 0.2%

8:30 CPI year-over-year did dip to 3.1% from 3.2% as expected

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was unchanged at 4.0%

2:00 Monthly federal budget came in worse than expected at $-314 billion.

Wednesday:

8:30 Producer price index was expected to rise to 0.1% but came in at 0.0%

8:30 Core PPI was expected to rise to 0.2% but came in unchanged at 0.1%

8:30 PPI year-over-year was expected to be unchanged at 1.3% but came in lower at 0.9%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year was expected to be 2.9% but came in at 2.5%.

2:00 FOMC decision on interest rates

2:30 Fed Chair press conference

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to come in at 220,000 but came in lower at 205,000

8:30 Import price index is expected to be unchanged at -0.8% but rose to -0.4%

8:30 Retail sales are expected to be unchanged at -0.1% but stunned with a gain to 0.3%

10:00 Business inventories were unchanged at -0.2%

Friday:

8:30 Empire State manufacturing index is expected to fall to 4.0 from 9.1

9:15 Industrial production is expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.6%

9:15 Capacity utilization is expected to rise slightly to 79.1%