Prior Trading Day Summary:
For the final trading day of November, history tried to repeat itself with the Dow Jones making a new all-time high, the S&P climbing 17 points and the NASDAQ losing 32 points.
The S&P for November rose 8 percent. This was the best gain since July 2022 and the month ranks among the top 10 best monthly returns since the 1920’s.
Meanwhile the NASDAQ rose 10% in November its best one month in over two years.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Nov 30 2023 to see what to expect for the start of December.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Nov 30 2023
The index closed above all major moving averages and continued to move away from the Upper Bollinger Band and sideways for a seventh straight trading day.
The closing candlestick is bullish at the close for the start of December.
The 21 day moving average is rising steadily.
The 50 day moving average is still below the 100 day and needs to climb above it for another up signal.
The 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is rising sharply which is presently bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bearish and could signal a Bollinger Bands Squeeze by next week.
The S&P chart is mixed following 7 trading days of sideways motion. The bulls still need to push stocks higher or risk a dip lower to find more buyers.
Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Nov 30 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is unchanged and positive. It is close to turning negative.
|
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Thu Nov 2. On Thu Nov 30 2023 the signal up lost more strength. The MACD histogram is almost turning negative.
|
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative. It is not overbought.
|
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is very overbought.
|
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is risingg and positive. It is signaling overbought.
|
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and positive. It is signaling no large swings are expected intraday.
|
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4590 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4565 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4535 is resistance |
| 4520 is resistance |
| 4500 is support |
| 4475 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4440 is support |
| 4425 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4375 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4275 is light support |
| 4250 is light support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Dec 1 2023
For the start of December the outlook is once again mixed with some technical indicators still pointing to the market as bullish and a number pointing bearish.
Historically the first day of December also has a mixed past. Over the last 12 years the indexes have closed higher just 35% of the time.
For Friday we may see history repeat itself.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Major economic events this week are consumer confidence on Tuesday, the Fed Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon and consumer spending (PCE) on Thursday.
Monday:
10:00 New Home Sales are expected to fall to 725,000 from 759,000 but instead fell to 679,000.
Tuesday:
9:00 Case-Shiller home price index is expected to come in at 3.9% and met those estimates.
10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to dip just slightly to 101 from 102.6 prior. Instead consumer confidence showed strength at 102.
Wednesday:
8:30 GDP (revised) is estimated at 5% for the quarter but came in at 5.2%
2:00 Fed Beige Book is released
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims rose to 218,000 slightly less than expected but higher than the prior week.
8:30 Personal income was slightly lower at 0.2%
8:30 Personal spending was also 0.2%
8:30 PCE Index was flat at 0.0% which assisted stocks on Thursday to move higher in anticipation of no further interest rate hikes.
10:00 Pending home sales were down -1.5% which was higher than expected but still down from the prior reading of 1.1%.
Friday:
9:45 S&P global manufacturing PMI is expected to be 49.6%
10:00 ISM manufacturing is expected to come in at 47.7%
10:00 Construction spend is estimated at 0.3%
11:00 Fed Chair Powell speaks