Stock Market Outlook for Fri Aug 6 2021 – All About The Jobs Numbers

The SPX traded in a tight range until the final hour of trading when the index shot higher ahead of Friday’s July unemployment report.

The day ended with a gain of 26 points and a new record close of 4429 and new all-time high.

While Friday will be all about the jobs numbers from July, the technical indicators are worth a look as well.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Aug 5 2021 

On Thursday the S&P closed higher and left behind a bullish candlestick for Friday.

What is important in the chart is the change in the Lower Bollinger Band. The Lower Bollinger Band is falling back below the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is still rising, which is also bullish.

All the major moving averages are still climbing which is bullish. The chart remains dominantly bullish for Friday.

Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Aug 5 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Mon Aug 2. On Thu Aug 5 2021 the down signal was very weak and almost gone.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place and is still overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4400 is resistance

4370 is resistance

4350 is light support

4300 is light support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is light support

4225 is light support

4200 is light support

4175 is light support

4150 is light support

4100 is good support

4070 is light support

4050 is light support

4000 is good support

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Aug 6 2021 

For Friday the July unemployment report will have the most impact, especially in the morning. But aside from them, the technical indicators have improved dramatically.

The biggest improvement is the dropping of the Lower Bollinger Band below the 50 day moving average. This is bullish for the index.

The biggest concern for Friday is all the technical indicators that are rising. There are none that are falling and as we know, when the market’s technical indicators are all pointing in one direction often the market moves in the other.

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