Day’s Summary
On Thursday stocks tried a rebound in the morning which failed to hold and the index slipped below 4500. That though brought in buyers who, after 3 days of selling seemed to feel many stocks were “low enough”. They snapped up stocks that had been beaten down and managed to close the day at 4501, still holding the 4500 level. The past three days of selling have helped to build some support in the SPX. In particular, the 4500 level has found ready buyers.
The NASDAQ did even better closing down just 13 points to end the day at 13,959.
Volumes were interesting on Thursday. New York saw 4.5 billion shares traded which was in keeping with the average for the past week. The NASDAQ however saw 6.2 billion shares traded which much of that it the afternoon. For the NASDAQ this was the highest volume since June 23 when 8 billion shares were traded and the index ended the day lower. Many analysts had called the day the start of a major drop but they were wrong.
Overall the trading on Thursday showed a lot of buying interest is building. Often that indicates a bounce is coming.
Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Thursday to see what to expect for Friday’s trading.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Aug 3 2023
The index closed below the 21 day moving average. While this is bearish, it also is indicative of a bounce coming.
The closing candlestick on Thursday points to a bounce for Friday.
The 21, 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band fell back to the 50 day moving average which is bearish. The Upper Bollinger Band is still rising which is bullish.
Overall the index is still bullish and shows signs of a potential bounce after 3 days of selling.
Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Aug 3 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and negative.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thursday Jul 27. On Thu Aug 3 2023 the down signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and negative.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place. It is nearing oversold readings but not there yet.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling but is now signaling oversold. It should bounce.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling but at a level where we have often see the index bounce.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is support |
| 4485 is support |
| 4470 is support |
| 4450 is support |
| 4435 is support |
| 4420 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
| 4340 is support |
| 4325 is support |
| 4310 is support |
| 4300 is support |
| 4290 is support |
| 4275 is support |
| 4250 is support |
| 4240 is support |
| 4225 is support |
| 4210 is support |
| 4200 is good support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Aug 4 2023
For Friday stocks are showing more strength, both in the SPX chart and the technical indicators. The earnings from Apple and Amazon on Thursday after the close were excellent and should assist the market in bouncing. Often when the index slips below a major moving average, such as the 21 day which occurred today, there is a bounce even if the index continues lower in the following days.
On Friday we get the July non-farm payroll report. As long as it is in-line with estimates, we should see a bounce and a higher close to end the week.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Friday:
8:30 July non-farm payroll is expected to be 200,000
8:30 July unemployment rate is expected to stay unchanged at 3.6%
8:30 July hourly wages are expected to rise 0.3% and 4.2% year over year