Stock Market Outlook for Fri Aug 30 2024 – Another Bounce Possible But Lower Close Into Holiday Weekend

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday stocks rose to start the day. With the index touching 5646 before 1:00 PM, sellers stepped in and the index tumbled into the close.

With the intraday rally lost, the SPX ended the day flat, down just 0.22 to close at 5592, unchanged from Wednesday’s close.

The NASDAQ closed down 39 points to 17,516 but intraday it reached 17,789.

The loss of the rally was disappointing but for the final few days of August, it is not unusual activity, especially with low volume on the SPX.

With just one more day until the long weekend, historically the last trading day of August has been negative 70% of the time since I have kept records from 1974.

NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) was a major drag on the index as it fell 6.38% to close at $117.59.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Aug 29 2024 to see what the signals advise for Fri Aug 30 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Aug 29 2024

The index closed above all the major moving averages which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bearish but has a long shadow which often signals a bounce attempt may occur on Friday.

The 21 day moving average is turning higher but failed to cross above the 50 day. This is bearish.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5499. This is bullish but the 50 day uptrend is slowing.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5365 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5139 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average and has turned lower which is bullish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is moving higher which is also bullish.

The S&P chart is strongly bullish with the closing candlestick and the 21 day moving average the only bearish signals.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Aug 29 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Aug 30 2024 

On Thursday the Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in at 231,000 which was in-line with estimated. Today investors get the latest personal income and personal spending as well as the PCE index. Should numbers not come in as expected markets may slip.

Overall the outlook remains lower for Friday as the final trading day of August ahead of the long weekend. Next week we should have a better idea how September may perform. Historically September can be tricky for investors with a history of dips and weakness. Staying cautious today and keeping trades smaller than usual are ways to keep capital out of the market to take advantage of any dips, should they occur.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

8:30 Durable goods orders surprised and rose to 9.9% from the prior -6.7%

8:30 Durable goods orders less transportation however came in negative at -0.2%

Tuesday:

9:00 S&P Case-Shiller home price index is expected lower at 6.3% from 6.8% prior

10:00 Consumer confidence is expected to rise slightly to 101 from 100.3

Wednesday:

No reports of consequence

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in at 231,000.

8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods rose rather than fell.

8:30 GDP second revised was expected to come in unchanged at 2.8% but rose to 3.0%

10:00 Pending home sales were estimated to come in at 0.1% down from 4.8% prior but came in at -5.5% much weaker than expected.

Friday:

8:30 Personal income is expected to come in at -5.5%

8:30 Personal spending is expected to rise slightly to 0.5% from 0.3%

8:30 PCE index is expected to climb slightly to 0.2% from 0.1%

8:30 PCE year-over-year is expected to be unchanged at 2.5%

8:30 Core PCE index is expected to be unchanged at 0.2%

8:30 Core PCE year-over-year is expected to come in at 2.7% up 0.1%

10:00 Consumer sentiment is expected to rise slightly to 68%