Stock Market Outlook for Fri Aug 16 2024 – MACD Up Signal Confirmed

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday the earnings from Walmart and forward guidance showed that the consumer was continuing to spend and was also taking on more debt. Investors took this as a sign there would be no recession. Stocks soared higher.

The SPX rose 88 points to close at 5543. For the week the index is up 199 points in 4 days and bringing the SPX near the highs of July 23 when the index was at 5555.

The NASDAQ closed up 401 points to 17,594. For the week the index is up an impressive 849 points and within a handful of points of July 31st close of $17,599.

The close also saw Wednesday’s MACD up signal confirmed.

Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thu Aug 15 2024 to see what the signals advise for Fri Aug 16 2024.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Aug 15 2024

The index closed above all the major moving averages on Thursday which is bullish.

The closing candlestick is bullish but signals stocks are overbought and a dip or two are likely.

The 21 day moving average is starting to turn sideways and could turn back up next week. This is neutral.

The 50 day moving average is back rising and closed at 5460. This is bullish.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5312 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5092 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 100 day moving average but rising which is bullish.

The Upper Bollinger Band is turning sideways which is also bullish.

The S&P chart is more bullish than bearish.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Aug 15 2024

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Aug 16 2024 

For Friday the SPX is showing a large number of overbought signals from the technical indicators. The MACD up signal was confirmed and the outlook is higher still.

For Friday there will be some selling, especially as many stocks are overbought. The day though should end still higher, even if only slightly.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

2:00 Monthly federal budget rose as estimated to -241 billion.

Tuesday:

8:30 Producer price index (PPI) was lower to 0.1%

8:30 Core PPI rose to 0.3%

8:30 PPI year-over-year came in lower at 2.2%

8:30 Core PPI year-over-year was higher at 3.3%

Wednesday:

8:30 Consumer price index came in as estimated at 0.2%

8:30 CPI year-over-year came in lower at 2.9%

8:30 Core CPI rose as expected 0.2%

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year dipped as estimated to 3.2%

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in slightly lower at 227,000

8:30 Retail sales are expected to rose to 1.0%

8:30 Retail sales minus autos fell to 0.4%

8:30 Import price index rose slightly to 0.1%

9:15 Industrial production for July fell to -0.6%

9:15 Capacity utilization slipped to 77.8%

10:00 Business inventories met estimates at 0.3%

Friday:

10:00 Consumer sentiment is expected at 66.6 for August

8:30 Housing starts are expected to slip slightly to 1.34 million

8:30 Building permits are estimated to have fallen to 1.42 million