Prior Trading Day Summary
On Thursday stocks started the day higher thanks to excellent earnings from Microsoft, META and other companies. As the day wore on however, concerns over the start of tariffs for dozens of countries as of August 1 weighed on stocks. By the close the strength of the selling was picking up.
The SPX ended the day down 23 points at 6339 marking a third straight day of a lower close. Volume rose to 6.1 billion, the highest volume since July 1.
The NASDAQ lost just 7 points to end the day at 21,122. Volume was 10.3 billion with 63% of all volume being traded to the downside.
Stock news was dominated by the advent of Figma Shares which jumped 250% in their debut on Thursday.
Lets review the closing technical indicators from Thu Jul 31 2025 to see what they predict for Fri Aug 1 2025, the first trading day of August 2025.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Jul 31 2025
The index closed below the Upper Bollinger Band and just above the 21 day moving average. This is bearish.
The closing candlestick is bearish.
The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 6301 which is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 6123 which is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5998 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5846 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is continuing to rise and above the 50 day moving average which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze commenced on Wednesday last week. At present the squeeze now looks like stocks could move lower out of the squeeze.
The SPX chart is more bullish than bearish heading into the start of August.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Jul 31 2025
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is rising and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Tue Jul 15. On Thu Jul 31 2025 the down signal gained strength.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling.
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| Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling, signaling a lower close for Friday. Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises, the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline. |
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6400 is resistance |
| 6390 is resistance |
| 6365 is resistance |
| 6350 is resistance |
| 6325 is resistance |
| 6300 is resistance |
| 6250 is resistance |
| 6225 is resistance |
| 6200 is resistance |
| 6175 is resistance |
| 6150 is resistance |
| 6125 is resistance |
| 6100 is support |
| 6075 is support |
| 6050 is support |
| 6025 is support |
| 6000 is support |
| 5990 is support |
| 5975 is support |
| 5950 is support |
| 5925 is support |
| 5900 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Fri Aug 1 2025
The morning open will depend on the July jobs numbers. After the initial move however, the technical indicators could have more influence and at present they are pointing lower.
With all the technical indicators pointing lower, often we will see an opposite effect and that would mean a bounce on Friday.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
There are no events
Tuesday:
8:30 Advanced trade balance in goods surprised strongly with $86.0 billion easily beating estimated of -$96.4 billion.
8:30 Advanced retail inventories icame in as estimated at 0.3%
8:30 Advanced wholesale inventories was stronger than estimated, at 0.2%
9:00 Case Shiller home price index was lower than estimated at 2.8%
10:00 Consume confidence was higher than estimated at 97.2
10:00 Job openings were lower than estimated at 7.4 million
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP Employment is expected to rise to 64,000 but rose to 104,000 instead
8:30 GDP rose to 3.0% well beyond estimates of 2.3%
10:00 Pending home sales were expected to rise 0.2% but instead fell -0.8%
2:00 Fed Chair Powell announces latest interest rate decision and attends news conference
Thursday:
8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims were lower at 218,000 than estimated
8:30 Personal income rose to 0.3% beating estimates.
8:30 Personal spending rose to 0.3%, higher than estimates.
8:30 PCE Index met estimates, rising to 0.3%
8:30 Personal Consumption Expenditures year-over-year rose to 2.6% which was higher than estimated
8:30 Core PCE index rose to 0.3%, higher than estimated
9:30 Core PCE year-over-year rose to 2.8% which was higher than estimated
Friday:
8:30 July employment report is expected to show a decline to 100,000 from 147,000 prior
8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated to rise to 4.2%
8:30 Hourly wage is estimated to rise to 0.3%
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI is estimated to rise to 49.9 from 49.5 prior
10:00 ISM manufacturing is estimated to rise to 49.5% from 49%
10:00 Construction spending is estimated to rise to -0.1% from -0.3%