Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 4 2025 – All About The March Jobs Numbers

Prior Trading Day Summary:

Thursday saw stocks collapsing worldwide following higher than expected tariffs from President Trump. At was a brutal day, the worse single day since 2020.

The SPX closed down 274 points to 5396 on 7.3 billion shares traded. For the week the SPX is down 184 points. New 52 week lows hit 548 on New York.

The NASDAQ closed down 1050 points ending the day at 16550 on 9.6 billion shares traded. New lows rocketed to 854. Surprisingly there were 53 new highs. For the week, the NASDAQ is down 772 points.

Friday is the March jobs numbers. If they miss even slightly we could see a new round of selling today.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Apr 3 2025

The index closed below the 200 day moving average . This is bearish.

The closing candlestick show a deep sell-off with the SPX closing at the lows for the day. This is bearish but often points to a potential bounce, even a slight one.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5647 which is bearish. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7/ It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5865 which is bearish.

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5820 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5696 which is bearish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is falling sharply signaling more downside is ahead. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling below the 50 day moving average and 100 day. This is bearish and a potential Bollinger Bands Squeeze now looks less likely with the Lower Bollinger Band falling away from the Upper Bollinger Band.

For Friday the SPX chart is still strongly bearish and the closing candlestick although signaling a possible bounce attempt, it is still pointing lower for equities.

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 4 2025 

Thursday’s close was strongly bearish. he chance of a bounce today that might last is low. The market action will start based on the March non-farm payroll numbers. Analysts expect 140,000 jobs and for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 4.1%. Analysts though have not been accurate for the past several months. If the number is lower, stocks have a good chance to extend losses. If the number beats by a wide margin, stocks may try to rally but on Friday no rally will hold ahead of the weekend.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

9:45 Chicago business barometer came in higher than expected at 47.6 which was higher than the prior reading of 45.5

Tuesday:

9:45 Final S&P US manufacturing PMI was much higher than expected at 50.2

10:00 Construction spending rose well beyond estimated to 0.7%

10:00 ISM Manufacturing slipped to 49%

10:00 Job openings came in at 7.6 million, down from 7.7 million.

Through The Day we get auto sales which are estimated to be 16.5 million, up slightly from 26.0 million prior

Wednesday:

8:15 ADP employment surprised with a strong 155,000 jobs

10:00 Factory orders arefell as expected to 0.6% from 1.7% prior

Thursday;

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims claims came in at 219,000, lower the estimated.

8:30 Trade deficit surprised with a jump to $122.7 billion from an expected -$123.4 billion.

9:45 S&P final services PMI came in at 54.4, better than estimated

10:00 ISM services were lower than expected at 50.8%

Friday:

8:30 March non-farm payroll is expected to show 140,000 jobs created, down from 151,000 prior

8:30 Unemployment rate is estimated unchanged at 4.1%

8:30 Hourly wages are estimated unchanged at 0.3%

8:30 Hourly wages year-over-year are estimated to slip to 3.9% from 4.0% prior