On Thursday the S&P moved higher pushing to an intraday high of 4218 and closing at 4211, a gain of 0.68%.
The month of April the S&P is up 6% and for the year, it is now up 12.12%.
Let’s review the closing technical indicators from Thursday to see what investors should expect for the final day of April.
Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Thu Apr 29 2021
The Upper Bollinger Band is continuing to move sideways which is bearish and the Lower Bollinger Band is still moving higher above the 50 day moving average. A Bollinger Bands Squeeze is on the verge of commencing.
The closing candlestick on Thursday is bullish for Friday, the first bullish candlestick in 3 trading days.
The 21 day moving average is climbing higher, further away from the 50 day moving average which is bullish.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are all climbing higher.
Overall the S&P chart is bullish but as explained above there are bearish signals that are warning investors to stay cautious.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:
Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling.
- Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.
MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday March 29 2021. On Thursday another negative signal was not strong enough to confirm the next move will be down.
- Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
- Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.
Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place for Friday.
Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.
Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.
- Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.
Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.
- Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.
Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:
4225 is resistance
4200 is resistance
4150 is light support
4100 is light support
4070 is very light support
4050 is light support
4000 is Support
3900 is support and the 50 day is just above this at 3933.
3850 is support
3800 is support and the 100 day is just above this level.
3750 is good support
3700 is light support
3680 is light support
3600 is strong support and the 200 day is just above this level.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Fri Apr 30 2021
Thursday’s push to new highs may have set up the index for a weak opening on Friday. Technically the indicators are mixed with three pointing down as the next move for the index and 3 still pointing higher.
On Friday the mixed signal should see stocks open a bit weaker but then still try to close higher to end the month on a strong note. Monday starts May off and historically, it has been a poor day for stock markets. That means I will be making smaller trades on Friday and then watching for the start of May to see if the index will slip a bit lower. Any such dip next will will provide better entry positions and prices.