Stock Market Outlook For Fri Apr 25 2025 – Choppy – Dips Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Thursday stocks moved higher once again but there are some signs the rally is losing steam.

The SPX rose 109 points to close at 5484.  Volume fell back by 700 million shares to 4.7 billion. 80% of all volume was rising by the close along with 82% of stocks. The NASDAQ saw the same type of day. The index closed up 458 to 17,166 but on 7.8 billion shares, a decline of 1.1 billion shares traded.

Earnings results on Thursday were better than many analysts had expected. That should keep some buying pressure for stocks.

Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Thu Apr 24 2025 to see what they predict for Fri Apr 25 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Thu Apr 24 2025

The index closed above the 21 day but below the 200 day moving average again. This is bearish..

The closing candlestick is bullish but signals the rally is overbought and we may see dips today.

The 21 day moving average is falling and closed at 5389. The 21 day moving average fell below the 50 day on Friday Mar 7. It fell below the 100 day on Thursday Mar 13 for a second down signal and on Friday Mar 28 it fell below the 200 day for a third down signal.

The 50 day moving average is falling and closed at 5646 which is bearish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15. which issues a 4th down signal on the SPX. It is now at the 200 day moving average. It could fall below it today which would be another strong down signal..

The 100 day moving average is falling and closed at 5689 which is bearish.

The 200 day moving average is falling and closed at 5642 which is bearish.

All the moving averages are continuing their decline with four down signals so far in the sell-off.

The Lower Bollinger Band is finally turning higher. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling but we may see a Bollinger Bands Squeeze next week.

For Friday the SPX chart is bearish but pointing to a possible higher day on Friday..

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Thu Apr 24 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Apr 25 2025 

The rally back from the lows of early April are nice to see but the technical indicators are not supporting the rally. Instead they are now signaling a higher close is likely for today. The indexes are getting overbought but investors are still sitting out the rally. That could prove to be a mistake.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

10:00 Leading economic indicators were lower than estimated at -0.7% from -0.3% prior

Tuesday:

No economic reports

Wednesday:

9:45 S&P flash services PMI fell more than expected to 51,4

9:45 S&P US manufacturing PMI fell less than anticipated at 50.7

10:00 New homes sales for March were far higher than expected at 724,000 well above estimates of 685,000.

2:00 Fed’s Beige Book notes are not expected to impact stock market direction today

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims came in higher than estimated at 222,000

8:30 Durable goods orders stunned analysts as it rose to 9.2% as consumers rushed to buy large ticket items ahead of any tariff implementation

10:00 Existing home sales we a lot lower than estimated, coming in at 402 million.

Frioday:

Consumer sentiment is expected to come in at 50.8, unchanged from the prior reading.