The outlook for the S&P continued to be up for Monday, despite weakness late last week. All three indexes on Monday set new record highs. With many analysts now calling this market a secular earnings-driven bull market, the number of bullish analysts is rising. Since July the S&P has recorded 13 intraday record highs. With investor expectations that interest rates will stay low for months if not years to come, investors are looking to Wednesday’s Fed July policy minutes for any clue as to when the Fed may raise interest rates for a second time.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index rose to 2193.81 intraday before closing at 2190.15 for a gain of 6.10 points and another new high.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow rose 59.58 points to close at 18,636.05 also a record high close.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ had the best day rising 0.56% to close at 5262.02 up 29.12 at another record high.
Stock Market Outlook – Technical Indicators At The Close
Stock Market Outlook for Aug 15 2016
Stock Market Outlook: Chart Comments:
The SPX closed slightly higher on Monday but is continuing to push against the Upper Bollinger Band which is a bullish signal. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is starting to end and the S&P appears likely to continuing to move higher out of the Bollinger Bands Squeeze.
All the major moving averages continuing to move higher. The closing candlestick on Monday is bullish for Tuesday.
Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
2160 is very light support.
2150 is support
2100 is light support.
2090 is very light support.
2075 is also light support
Below that is 2050 which is light support.
2025 is better support than 2050 through to 2090.
2000 is primary support.
Weak support is at 1970 while stronger support is at 1956 and technically it is more important than 1970 for the market. 1940 is light support as is 1920. 1900 is more symbolic than anything else.
Stock Market Outlook Technical Signals
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum continues to move sideways but is staying positive.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on August 1. That sell signal weakened further on Monday but the slow grinding action and low volumes are keeping the sell signal in place.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and moving more sideways than up or down.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change signal is positive and moving sideways.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic has an up signal in place which could easily turn to a down signal. It is overbought.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when I have it set for daily views. The Fast Stochasticis has an up signal in place and is overbought but you can see in the chart that it could turn down with any type of weakness on Tuesday..
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – August 16 2016
The technical outlook on Monday after the close remains very mixed. Overall though there is still more strength and weakness in the technical readings.
For Tuesday there will more likely be a dip below the 2190 close, intraday in the morning but a still higher close is expected even if only slightly higher.
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