With financial stocks pushing higher and the decline in Amazon and Alphabet stalled, the indexes gained on the day. The Dow Jones came within 10 points of reaching 22,000 a feat even a year ago that seemed daunting, if not impossible. Meanwhile the US dollar moved up slightly off a 15 month low against most major currencies. At last 55% of analysts now believe the Federal Reserve will not raise rates further this year. Meanwhile oil slid lower down from a two month high. However Exxon Mobil Stock (XOM) managed a small rise of 13 cents to close at $80.17 and Chevron Stock (CVX) rose $1.59 to $110.78 oblivious to the decline in oil prices.
S&P Index Close
The S&P index ended the day up 6.05 at 2476.35 within a few points of the all-time high.
Dow Jones Index Close
The Dow Jones ended up 72.80 at 21,963.92 for a new closing high and intraday reached 21,990.96.
NASDAQ Index Close
The NASDAQ closed up 14.81 to 6,362.94 98 points from the all time intraday high of 6460.84.
Stock Market Outlook
Stock Market Outlook review of Aug 1 2017
Chart Comments At The Close:
Historically the first day of August has not been an up day 68% of the time over the past 19 years. As well the first 9 trading days have also been weak for stocks so something, historically, to keep in the back of your mind.
The S&P moved higher today but left behind a bearish candlestick at the close. Apple stock earnings though could impact the open on Wednesday as earnings were very strong and the stock should open and move higher, dragging many stocks along with it.
All the major indexes are climbing higher but the overall outlook of the chart at present is fairly weak.
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators:
Momentum: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction. Momentum remains positive and is moving sideways.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a buy signal on July 14. The buy signal is weaker and as you can see in the MACD histogram, weakness is growing.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive but moving lower.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic is overbought and signaling lower for Wednesday.
Relative Strength Index: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor. It often is the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal. The RSI signal is bouncing higher.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. The rate of change signal is positive and has turned sideways indicating no large price movements up or down are expected for the next couple of days.
Support Levels To Be Aware Of:
The market has developed light support at 2450 and good support at 2425. There is also light support at 2400, 2380, 2350 and 2300.
Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Wed Aug 2 2017
For Wednesday the technical indicators have only one sell signal to contend with, but a large number of falling indicators. MACD is particularly weak and could issue a sell signal as early as tomorrow.
Wednesday though still looks bullish as stocks should be dragged higher by the anticipated rally in Apple Stock following their stellar quarterly earnings released on Tuesday after the markets closed.
On Thursday though, we should see stocks turn sideways and probably a negative close. I will know more for Thursday after the markets close on Wednesday.
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