The Market Direction Outlook for Monday was for stocks to attempt a rebound rally once again. On Monday we finally saw the rebound rally that took 3 days to develop. The problem with Monday was the action. By 10:00 the market was already up to 2083. The rest of the day was spent with stocks basically trending sideways until the close just 3 points higher. It was a great rally, but for the indexes it was over within the first half hour of the day.
Advance Decline for Mar 30 2015
Volume on Monday was just 2.9 billion making it one of the slower days so far this year. Still though 82% of all volume was up and 139 new highs were made and only 16 new lows. Overall the day belonged to the bulls, but the lack of volume was disappointing.
Market Direction Closings For Mar 30 2015
The S&P closed at 2,086.24 up 25.22. The Dow closed at 17,976.31 up 263.65. The NASDAQ closed at 4,947.44 up 56.22.
Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of Mar 30 2015
Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of Mar 30 2015 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for Mar 31 2015.
Market Direction Technical Analysis for Mar 30 2015
Stock Chart Comments:
On Monday the rise in the index placed it well ahead of all three moving averages and back above the 20 day simple moving average (SMA). The rise on Monday did not recover the entire loss from Wednesday’s plunge but another up day could recover that loss. The S&P recovered the 2075 light support level.
Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
2100 was very light support and is now resistance. 2075 is light support. Below that is 2050 which is also light support. Stronger support is at 2000 which has repeatedly held the market up throughout each recent pullback.
Weak support is at 1970. Stronger support is at 1956.
1870 and 1840 are both levels with strong enough support to delay the market falling and should see a sideways action attempt while investors decide whether to sell or buy.
The other two support levels are 1775 and 1750. I have explained that these two are critical support for the present bull market. While 1775 is important it is 1750 that is the bottom line.
A break of 1750 would mark a severe correction from the most recent high. This would be the biggest correction since April 2012. A pull-back of that size would definitely stun investors.
Momentum: For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum was unimpressed with the rally and stayed only slightly positive but more neutral than either..
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on March 25 just two days after a buy signal. The sell signal though remains weaker still on Monday.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is still negative but rising.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The Rate Of Change is now undecided on the direction and is pointing more sideways than up or down for stocks.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The slow stochastic is still signaling up for stocks.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is also pointing up for stocks.
Market Direction Outlook for Mar 31 2015
The technical indicators are a bit mixed but most are positive and issuing up signals. Momentum is probably the biggest concern as lack of volume is impacting the momentum indicator. For Tuesday investors need to see some follow through, which has been lacking since the start of January.
With momentum warning investors to be careful and the Rate Of Change also unimpressed with the rally, the Market Direction Outlook is up for Tuesday but caution is warranted until we see some follow through.
Historically the final day of March has seen the Dow down 15 of the last 26 years but the Russell 2000 up 15 of the last 20 years.
Stay FullyInformed With Email Updates
Market Direction Internal Links
Profiting From Understanding Market Direction (Articles Index)
Understanding Short-Term Signals
Market Direction Portfolio Trades (Members)