Much of the rally on Thursday was given back as the afternoon progressed. This was expected as the bias was for a slight up move but more sideways action than anything else. By the close of trading on Thursday the S&P was up 3.66 points.
Advance Decline Numbers for June 11 2015
Following the big gain on Wednesday, it was not surprising for Thursday’s volume to drop back to 3.1 billion shares. 53% of that volume was to the upside but new highs fell back to 101 while new lows were unchanged at 86.
No one, either bull or bear won the day on Thursday.
Market Direction Closings For June 11 2015
The S&P closed at 2,109.86 up 3.66. The Dow closed at 18,039.37 up 38.97. The NASDAQ closed at 5,082.51 up 5.82
Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of June 11 2015
Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of June 11 2015 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for June 12 2015.
Market Direction Technical Analysis for June 11 2015
Stock Chart Comments:
The close on Thursday was still below the Middle Bollinger Band despite the SPX trying to move above it. This is a sign of resistance following Wednesday’s big gain. The chance that Friday will see stocks move slightly lower is higher due to the Middle Bollinger Band rebuffing Thursday’s advance..
Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
2100 is very light support. Stocks will have to stay above it to change it back to solid support and convince investors that the market has staying power and will push well beyond 2100. That still does not appear to be the case.
2075 is light support. Below that is 2050 which is also light support. Stronger support is at 2000 which has repeatedly held the market up throughout each pullback in January and February.
Weak support is at 1970. Stronger support is at 1956.
1870 and 1840 are both levels with strong enough support to delay the market falling and should see a sideways action attempt while investors decide whether to sell or buy.
The other two support levels are 1775 and 1750. I have explained that these two are critical support for the present bull market. While 1775 is important it is 1750 that is the bottom line.
A break of 1750 would mark a severe correction from the most recent high. This would be the biggest correction since April 2012. A pull-back of that size would definitely stun investors and bring to question whether the bull market is finished.
Momentum: For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is negative and rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on May 29. The sell signal was weakened again today.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising.
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The rate of change is signaling that a sideways market may be developing.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The Slow Stochastic is still signaling up for stocks.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic is signaling up for stocks.
Market Direction Outlook for June 12 2015
Technically the indicators re weak but three are positive, two are negative and one is sideways. This points to stocks trending sideways again on Friday but possibly with a downward bias following today’s give back of a large party of the rally.
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