The Market Direction Outlook for Thursday Apr 10 was for stocks to remain mixed although technically the bias is now to the upside. It was a rough day to start with a spike higher at the start of the trading day and then a move back to 2075 by 11:21. This though brought in buyers and the market rose for the remainder of the day and managed to close near the highs of the day at 2091.18 up almost half a percent for a gain of 9.28 points. This places the S&P well within range of retaking 2100.
Advance Decline for Apr 9 2015
Volume on Thursday was virtually unchanged from Wednesday. Up volume made up 57% of all trades while down down came in at 41%. New highs were low again at just 100 and new lows were only 7. These numbers don’t reflect any kind of strength in the bull market but the small number of new lows is indicative of the market continuing to try to move higher. Once again the bulls took the day.
Market Direction Closings For Apr 9 2015
The S&P closed at 2,091.18 up 9.28. The Dow closed at 17,958.73 up 56.22. The NASDAQ closed at 4,974.56 up 23.74.
Market Direction Technical Indicators At The Close of Apr 9 2015
Let’s review the market direction technical indicators at the close of Apr 9 2015 on the S&P 500 and view the market direction outlook for Apr 10 2015.
Market Direction Technical Analysis for Apr 9 15
Stock Chart Comments:
Stocks ended with another good day tacking on almost half a percent in gains. The S&P closed near the highs of the day and the 20 day simple moving average (SMA) has turned back up above the 50 day simple moving average (SMA). Stocks retouched the 2075 level around 11:21 and then commenced to climb higher. While not the most robust of rallies, there is still enough momentum to carry stocks further to the upside.
Support and Resistance Levels:
These are the present support and resistance levels.
2100 was very light support and is now resistance. 2075 is light support. Below that is 2050 which is also light support. Stronger support is at 2000 which has repeatedly held the market up throughout each recent pullback.
Weak support is at 1970. Stronger support is at 1956.
1870 and 1840 are both levels with strong enough support to delay the market falling and should see a sideways action attempt while investors decide whether to sell or buy.
The other two support levels are 1775 and 1750. I have explained that these two are critical support for the present bull market. While 1775 is important it is 1750 that is the bottom line.
A break of 1750 would mark a severe correction from the most recent high. This would be the biggest correction since April 2012. A pull-back of that size would definitely stun investors.
Momentum: For Momentum I am using the 10 period. Momentum is positive and rising.
MACD Histogram: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a sell signal on March 25 but issued an unconfirmed buy signal on Thursday Apr 9.
Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months. The Ultimate Oscillator is positive and rising
Rate of Change: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. The Rate Of Change is now signaling up.
Slow Stochastic: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day. The slow stochastic is still pointing up for stocks.
Fast Stochastic: For the Fast Stochastic I use the K period of 20 and D period of 5. These are not default settings but settings I set for the 1 to 3 month S&P 500 chart when it is set for daily. The Fast Stochastic issued yet another up signal for stocks.
Market Direction Outlook for Apr 10 2015
The technical indicators are now all pointing to higher prices for the S&P. The MACD buy signal today needs to be confirmed on Friday but with all the indicators pointing higher stocks should be able to take back the 2100 level. While there is always the chance for some weakness on Friday or a sideways move, it will be an opportunity in my opinion, to add positions for a resumption higher. There is more upside ahead for the S&P.
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