FullyInformed.com

Market Direction Morning Comments For Jan 10 2013 – Textbook Technical Trading

Jan 10, 2013 | Stock Market Outlook

Market direction this morning is following exactly the market direction technical outlook comments made yesterday after the close. Click her to review yesterday’s closing market direction outlook.

The market direction opened strong on the news of China’s export growth rebound which caught a lot of analysts off guard. The strong jump in exports in December ended the string of declining growth reports but then this is China, so I take into context how accurate any financial reporting is on China. Analysts were quick this morning though to jump in an indicating that December’s report “could be” an anomaly and since it would appear that Global growth is declining (questionable I think), December’s numbers are probably a one time rebound due to Christmas sales or may be revised lower shortly.

Market Direction Intraday Tech Talk

Let’s look at the 5 minute time frame chart for yesterday (Jan 9) and today (Jan 10 2013) to get a better picture technically what is happening with the S&P 500 and market direction.

I have numbered all the key aspects of the market direction technical chart below.

1. Yesterday the market had a gap open, meaning it jumped up and never traded between the previous day’s close and the opening of January 9. Believe it or not, eventually most of the time the S&P 500 will eventually fall back and fill that gap. I realize it is strange but it’s as if the market does not “trust” these empty ranges.

2. All day long the highs were never captured and the market slide lower managing to close near the high point of the last rally of the day. Performance was poor which is why the market technical indicators were unimpressed by the rally attempt. The rally should move higher not lower, but that gap open first thing, bothers a lot of investors and they remain cautious, which results in lighter volume and smaller trades.

3. All day yesterday the market made lower lows. Note how today’s (Jan 10) the market has done the same thing. Lower lows in the market direction after a nice big gap open again.

market direction intraday Jan 10 2013

Market Direction Intraday for Jan 9 and Jan 10 2013 - 5 minute time frame

4. This morning the market opened again with a gap open on the news about China and the news of Ford doubling its dividend from 5 cents to 10.

5. Then analysts jumped in to explain why they are still right on China and the world’s economies are slowing globally. I have my doubts on the global slow down. I see a lot of signs of anemic growth here and there and the US housing market is downright getting hot as it looks like now it bottomed out in 2011 and despite all the doom and gloom on US housing, it is coming back to life which is a great sign for the overall economy. As well, the US has had no negative months of employment growth in months. So while the employment growth is low, there is still growth every month which means little by little, the unemployed are getting jobs.

6. The late morning downturn has filled in that opening gap from this morning. Now there is a chance the market direction can turn back up.

Market Direction Outlook Unchanged

Overall though my market direction outlook remains unchanged. I expected some selling which we got this morning and I am expecting more a sideways movement which the Fast Stochastic predicted yesterday, with a slight bias to up. I don’t see any reason for a big sell-off here so sometimes when there is no sell-off pressure the path of least resistance is to move higher in market direction.

Market Direction Investor Mentality

A move higher in market direction often feeds on itself, just as a move lower in market direction does. When stocks begin to sell, investors become unnerved and they start to sell. Soon more investors join in and suddenly you are down 100 points in the Dow. The same can happen in a market direction up move. The market direction slowly creeps up and some investors notice this. They then buy some more stock pushing the market direction up yet again. Suddenly other investors see that the market direction is creeping up and they jump in pushing the market direction still higher. Then more investors pile in basically because the market direction isn’t falling. They are not buying with any conviction. Investors are simply buying because most investors are not selling.

Whatever happens, I simply follow whatever the trend is. There is underlying strength in the market direction right now as there was heavy selling of Treasury Bonds and Notes just a few short trading sessions ago when the Fed announced they may end their QE3 this year. That money has to go someplace and a lot of it will move into stocks.

So keep a watch on market direction because overall the trend remains higher until investors decide they think its time to get out.

Internal Market Direction Links

Market Timing Articles Index

How I Use Market Timing

Understanding Short-Term Signals

Various Market Timing Systems

Search

Select to view all results...

Generic selectors
Exact matches only
Search in title
Search in content
Post Type Selectors

Recent Outlooks

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 28 2024 – Choppy – Dips Likely – But Higher

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday investors returned and snapped up stocks that had drifted lower. The SPX bounced at the open and by the close it was up 45 points to close at 5248. The NASDAQ rose 83 points …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 27 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and comments on a possible correction and what it might entail. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 27 2024 – Unconfirmed MACD Down Signal

Prior Trading Day Summary: I lost my power shortly after the markets closed. Articles this evening will be shorter if I can post any. On Tuesday trading volume picked up as stocks fell for another day. The SPX closed near …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 26 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday. As well there are comments on support levels to watch in the SPX for the week. There are a number of trade …

Stock Market Outlook for Tue Mar 26 2024 – Still Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Monday low trading volumes hindered the chance of a positive close. The SPX saw just 3.4 billion shares traded. This matches the volume on last Friday. While poor , it is also bullish as it …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Mon Mar 25 2024 discuss the outlook for Monday and the shortened week ahead of the Easter holiday. There are a number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike …

Stock Market Outlook for Mon Mar 25 2024 – Dip Likely But Higher Close

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Friday investors took profits ahead of the upcoming shortened Easter week with indexes sitting at all-time highs. On Friday the SPX closed down just 7 points to 5234. For the week the index was up …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Fri Mar 22 2024 discuss the outlook for Friday. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including FedEx Stock (FDX), Nike Stock (NKE), Lululemon Athletica Stock (LULU),  and more …

Stock Market Outlook for Fri Mar 22 2024 – Choppy – Dips Possible But Still Up

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Thursday all 3 indexes closed at new all-time highs for a second straight day. Volumes remained decent but stocks are seeing some selling as investors are taking a few profits with the indexes at new …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Thu Mar 21 2024 discuss the outlook for Thursday following Wednesday’s FOMC interest rate decision and Fed Chair Powell’s news conference. There are a large number of trade ideas outlined including …

Stock Market Outlook for Thu Mar 21 2024 – Higher Still

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Wednesday the SPX, Dow Jones and NASDAQ indexes all closed at new all-time highs. Comments from Fed Chair Powell reaffirming 3 rate cuts in 2024 were still “on the table” was all that investors needed …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Wed Mar 20 2024 discuss the outlook for Wednesday and the latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chewy Stock (CHWY), SPY ETF, …

Stock Market Outlook for Wed Mar 20 2024 – All About The Fed – Bullish

Prior Trading Day Summary: On Tuesday the morning started with a dip down to 5131 but buyers were waiting for the dip and volumes picked up. Deep dips in a number of big caps like NVIDIA Stock (NVDA) found ready …

Morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024

For FullyInformed Members the morning Investing Strategy Notes for Tue Mar 19 2024 discuss the outlook for Tuesday following Monday’s rally and before Wednesday’s latest FOMC interest rate decision. There are also a number of trade ideas outlined including Chevron …