While the media may be focused on the probability of another losing week for the markets, it is the volume that remains the most interesting. It continues to show that investors are picking away at stocks. This started on Tuesday in the late morning rally. It has continued since then and in dips rather than selling out many investors are adding to positions. More and more investors are of the opinion that if the markets do move lower, 10% if probably the most left to fall. That would place the S&P down 25%.
Afternoon Stats And Outlook
All indexes are lower but could try to close positive in the final hour. That seems unlikely except for the Dow Jones Index.
New York / S&P
All stats are as of 2:00 PM.
30% of volume is is buying while 67% is selling. Basically 2 to 1 for sellers.
Volume is at 3.1 billion which is average. The index is down 18 points. The afternoon could see a bounce in the final hour but it seems likely a lower close is coming.
58% of all stocks are declining but 34% are advancing which means roughly a third of the index is still climbing or at least not falling. Financial stocks are trying to hold on but most are flat. JP Morgan Chase Stock (JPM) is the worse of the banks, as it is down 2% to $129. I am considering a new trade in the final hour today in JPM.
At 2:00 there are 378 new 52 week lows and 68 new 52 week highs.
Outlook though is bearish.
NASDAQ
The NASDAQ is about the same as New York with 35% of all volume buying while 64% are selling.
28% of all stocks are rising while 62% are declining.
Volume is 3.5 billion which is average and actually a bit low for a Friday.
The index is down 154 points which is not a lot for the index which has seen much worse days in 2022.
As of 2:00 there are 345 new 52 week lows and 48 new highs. Still quite bearish.
The NASDAQ remains bearish. The chance of a positive close is small.
TSX Composite Index – Canadian Stock Market Outlook
Bank stocks, which comprise 25% of the index, are mixed with about half down slightly. It is believes Canadian Banks have limited exposure to Russia or Ukraine.
The TSX is down just 50 points and at 21,531. The index continues to handle the volatility of oil, rising rates and war quite well.
The index remains stronger than the bigger US markets. 36% of all volume is buying and 60% are selling. There are 42 new 52 week highs and 101 new lows.
Volume is 243 million shares which is below average.
The outlook might be negative but the index is up 1.6% for 2022, one of the few positive stock exchanges around the world.
Outlook
Technically markets remain bearish but at present they are continuing to hold a bullish bias even though longer term the trend is still lower.
The VIX Index today fell below 30 which signals a decline in volatility is underway. Next week should be interesting as we finally get the Fed Funds rate increase and then we might see a rally off that rate increase if it is a quarter point and not half a point. In the present environment I think the chance of a half point rate rise is next to nil.
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