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MARKET DIRECTION CALLS
August 2 2011 - Selling Intensifies
August 1 2011 - Bear Returns
July 28 2011 - Before The Open
July 27 2011 - Down But Are We Out?
July 20 2011 - Stock Market Volatility
July 18 2011 - Investors' Nervousness
July 15 2011 - Earnings VS Bleak Data
July 14 2011 - Below 1310
July 13 2011 - Ugly Looking Chart
July 12 2011 - Razor's Edge
July 8 2011 - Nasdaq Leads The Way
July 5 2011 - Expected Weakness
July 1 2011 - Overbought
Jun 28 2011 - July Rally?
Jun 27 2011 - Mixed Signals 
Jun 21 2011 - Bottom Or Bounce?
Jun 16 2011 - Raising Cash
Jun 15 2011 - More Downside To Come?
Jun 14 2011 - Bounce or Bottom?
Jun 12 2011 - Batten Down The Hatches
Jun 6 2011 - Bounce Sometime Soon?
Jun 2 2011 - Sell Signals and Warnings Everywhere
Jun 1 2011 - How Bad Could The Selling Get
Jun 1 2011 - Tread Carefully - Markets Remains Overvalued
May 31 2011 - Success - 100 Day Moving Average Tested
May 17 2011 - Be Careful Out There
Apri 18 2011 - Two Bears Compared
Apr 13 2011 - Why I Bought Puts Today
Apr 4 2011 - Breaking The February Highs
Mar 16 2011 - The Art Of Being Wrong
Mar 15 2011 - Market Remains Resilient
Mar 11 2011 - Trend Is Down
Feb 25 2011 - Trend Turning Bearish
Feb 11 2011 - Still Up - But Watch For June
Jan 3 2011 - Trend Remains Positive
 

MARKET DIRECTION CALL S&P 500

June 15 2011 - More Downside To Come?

Today's selling just confirmed my suspicions as per my market comment from yesterday. It is impossible for the market to have any sustained upside until the financials join in. They do not need to lead, but they must definitely stop falling. I also read today a great article by Jeff Miller over at www.seekingalpha.com about what it takes to be a successful investor.  His article, combined with my article on treating your investing like a business, makes for compelling reading.

Below is the past 10 days. Predominantly lower highs and lower lows. Today, yesterday's rally was wiped out and the S&P500 ended up lower and closed near those lows. The March lows are getting closer but the 200 day has not yet been broken. Once that happens I believe there could be more selling.

S&P500 10 day chart

The past few weeks has seen some of the higher volume levels for the past 12 months. This could be a good sign that many of those who want to sell, have sold, or it could be bad sign that the market is going to drift lower.

SUMMARY

Just remember that selling naked puts on stocks you do not want to own is a bad idea in a down market. Stocks can fall further and faster than many investors realize. But for myself, I look forward to fire sale prices, however many stocks are nowhere near fire sale prices yet. I believe there is more selling ahead. I read an excellent article today discussing why the European Union will not allow Greece to default or leave the union. It made a lot of sense, so who knows, perhaps things will work out in the end. I just never can see how piling more debt on to debt is a solution. .

 

Disclaimer: There are considerable risks involved in all investment strategies. Trade at your own risk.
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