Buyers Return But Stay Cautious – Stock Market Outlook Afternoon Analysis for Fri Oct 1 2021

Intraday Chart Analysis - Stock Market Outlook - Afternoon

After setting another new low for the current sell-off this morning, buyers returned and have pushed tired sellers aside. The afternoon has seen good gains although there is a long way to go to recover the losses from the most recent sell-off. It is good however, to see the index bounce back. This is the best bounce since the sell-off started.

Here are some afternoon stats and comments on where I think the index may be heading.

Volume is not above average and buying is not wide spread but selective.

All indexes are climbing this afternoon.
New York -S&P
New lows are at 101 and new highs are 92. Volume has turned strongly positive with 75% of all trades being done to the upside. Advancing stocks are outpacing decliners by a wide margin this afternoon with 64% of all stocks climbing.
The index may see a sharp sell-off later this afternoon or into the close but the likelihood of a positive close is probably 90% with the SPX up more than 40 points.
The NASDAQ is not faring as well. It is up around 70 points with 47% of all volume to the upside. 54% of all stocks are climbing which is better than the morning but still not a strong bounce.
There are a huge 146 new lows and only 65 new highs. The chance of a flat to slightly positive close is high. We will see more selling next week.
TSX Composite Index – Canadian Stock Market Outlook
Volume is low at just 200 million shares traded, around half of what should be expected. New highs and new lows are almost unchanged from the morning at 26 and 27 respectively.
Up volume is strong at 65% but only 44% of all stocks are climbing. Bank stocks continue to do well and I have placed a couple of trades in the Canadian banks this morning.
The close should be positive but the TSX will see more selling next week. A break below 20,000 should occur early next week and then a rebound will follow.

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