stock-market-outlook-intraday-midday

For Midday today the morning was all about weakness thanks to a couple of downgrades and thanks to Home Depot Stock (HD) which fell over 5% this morning on weak earnings and a weaker forward guidance. Any company reducing their forward guidance in the present market is bounce to be hit. A lot of analysts are advising that they think Lowes Stock (LOW) is probably the better trade. It might be, but it is already trading at 35.9 times price to earnings in an industry that normally is around 26 to 27 times. We will know soon enough with earnings due out tomorrow from Lowes.

S&P Chart Intraday 4 Days

If you look at the S&P chart over the past 4 days as it has moved higher, you can see that the drop this morning still left in place a higher low as it failed to break below Monday’s morning low. You can also see in the Williams %R technical indicator that the index remains very overbought but there are signs that the choppiness yesterday and again today are reducing the overbought condition somewhat which should allow the index to push higher shortly. As always, a lot depends on the trade talks with China which give out conflicting reports. Overall though the chance of there being no deal could be higher than a deal of any kind being signed before year-end and that could dampen the rally.

SPX Chart to 12:20 PM Nov 19

 

Midday Stats

Halfway through the lunch hour declining volume on New York is 57% but 49% of stocks are still rising.  For New York there have been 146 new 52 week highs and 107 new 52 week lows.

For the NASDAQ the opposite is seen with 56% of all volume being traded higher and 57% of all stocks rising. So far today there have been 116 new highs and 52 new 52 week lows.

While market breadth for the NASDAQ is better than New York, the number of new low on New York is a concern and will continue to keep the advance slowly grinding higher rather than moving steadily forward.

Stocks Being Watched

Aside from my watch list stocks I am watching Western Digital Stock (WDC) tumble further and break through $50 as it gives back the rally from mid-summer to mid-September. AT&T is lower by 5% on a downgrade and any investor in L Brands Stock (LB) has to be furious at management as the stock continues to languish despite holding one of the biggest name brands worldwide.

I thought it interesting that yesterday Goldman Sachs issued a list of about 24 stocks they felt would out-perform in 2020 and among them was Harley-Davidson Stock (HOG) which I have followed for years. This stock has been in a long-term downtrend for over 3 years. It was $70 back in Dec 2014 and $62 in March 2017. I am not sure what they see in the stock but it is probably worth watching options for large volume buys of calls and puts, to spot when a spike or a plunge might be coming up.

On the positive side, Tesla Stock (TSLA) is continuing higher, now up to $357 and I have my trade put together late morning. PayPal Holdings Stock (PYPL) is up almost 2%, Visa is up $2.00 to $181.80 and Broadcom Stock (AVGO) is climbing as it is pressuring sellers sitting at $320. The ETF XBI is also on my radar for today and I have entered another trade this morning.

Afternoon Outlook

For the afternoon the outlook is unchanged from last night. There is a 50% chance of a lower close today but the underlying bias higher is still in place.



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Disclaimer: There are risks involved in all investment strategies and investors can and do lose capital. Trade at your own risk. Stocks, options and investing are risky and can result in considerable losses. None of the strategies, stocks or information discussed and presented are financial or trading advice or recommendations. Everything presented and discussed are the author’s own trade ideas and opinions which the author may or may not enter into. The author assumes no liability for topics, ideas, errors, omissions, content and external links and trades done or not done. The author may or may not enter the trades mentioned. Some positions in mentioned stocks may already be held or are being adjusted.

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