Prior Trading Day Summary
On Tuesday stocks gave back the bounce on Monday. It was a nice bounce, but investors are focusing on the upcoming CPI and PPI reports which is causing the bounce to be given back.
On Wednesday if the CPI report shows inflation weakening or certainly not increasing, then bulls have a chance to revive Monday’s bounce.
The SPX lost 25 points after gaining 29 points on Monday. The NASDAQ lost 144 points after gaining 1156 points on Monday.
Let’s review the SPX from Tue Sep 12 2023 to see what to expect for Wed Sep 13 2023.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Sep 12 2023
The index closed back below the 50 day which is bearish but above the 21 day moving average. which is bullish.
The closing candlestick on Tuesday is bearish but with two shadows, head and tail, the candlestick advises investors could see a bounce or a move lower on Wednesday.
The 50, 100 and 200 day moving averages are continuing to climb which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is moving below the 100 day which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving sideways. The Bollinger Bands Squeeze is not indicating which way stocks will turn.
Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Sep 12 2023
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and slightly positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Aug 29 2023. On Tue Sep 12 2023 the up signal was almost gone.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is falling and slightly positive.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a weak up signal.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and negative.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling and slightly negative.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 4600 is resistance |
| 4575 is resistance |
| 4550 is resistance |
| 4525 is resistance |
| 4500 is resistance |
| 4485 is resistance |
| 4470 is resistance |
| 4450 is support |
| 4435 is support |
| 4420 is support |
| 4400 is support |
| 4390 is support |
| 4370 is support |
| 4350 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Sep 13 2023
For Wednesday the technical indicators are split with most indicators showing weakness ahead of the CPI report on Wednesday and the PPI report on Thursday.
These reports will hold sway over which direction stocks will take. The technical indicators being split, also indicates the index could move either way today.
The most important thing about Tuesday is the SPX closed above the important 4450 support level. That’s the best thing the bulls could ask for from Tuesday’s trading.
On Wednesday everything will hinge on the CPI reports. Any hint that inflation is rekindling will send stocks lower. Any sign of inflation easing will restart Monday’s rally.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
This week the core CPI numbers on Wednesday and PPI numbers on Thursday will impact stocks.
Tuesday:
8:30 Consumer price index is expected to rise to 0.6%
8:30 Core CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%
8:30 CPI year-over-year is expect to rise to 3.6%
9:30 Core CPI year-over-year is expected to fall to 4.3%
2:00 Federal budget is expected to be -$245 billion.