Prior Trading Day Summary:
Tuesday saw stocks continue to face overbought conditions. As stocks struggled against sellers the index still managed to squeak out a new closing high of 6049, up not quite 3 points on the day.
The NASDAQ closed up $77 points to 19,481.
Volumes were good with the SPX trading 4.2 billion shares and the NASDAQ 6.2 billion.
Let review the closing technical signals from Tue Dec 3 2024 to see what to expect for Wed Dec 4 2024.
Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Tue Dec 3 2024
The index pushed to its highest level of the year on Tuesday. This is bullish.
The closing candlestick has a small shadow which once again indicates dips are expected today.
The 21 day moving average is higher at 5950. This is bullish.
The 50 day moving average is higher at 5852. This is bullish.
The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5712 which is bullish.
The 200 day moving average is in an uptrend and closed at 5463 which is bullish.
The Lower Bollinger Band is below the 50 day and rising sharply. The Upper Bollinger Band is moving lower. The chance of a Bollinger Bands Squeeze is building. This is currently bearish.
The S&P chart is bullish for Wednesday but signaling that the index is overbought and stocks are likely to face some selling and dips.
SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Tue Dec 3 2024
Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review
Momentum: Momentum is falling and positive.
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MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Monday Nov 25 2024. The up signal was stronger on Tuesday.
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Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising.
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Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has an up signal and is overbought. The signal could change to down on Wednesday.
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Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising and very overbought.
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Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling. Often this signals Wednesday could end lower.
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Stock Market Outlook: Support and Resistance Levels |
| 6050 is resistance |
| 6025 is resistance |
| 6015 is resistance |
| 6000 is resistance |
| 5990 is resistance |
| 5970 is resistance |
| 5950 is resistance |
| 5900 is rsistance |
| 5890 is resistance |
| 5875 is support |
| 5850 is support |
| 5825 is support |
| 5800 is support |
| 5790 is support |
| 5775 is support |
| 5765 is support |
| 5750 is support |
| 5725 is support |
| 5700 is support |
Stock Market Outlook for Wed Dec 4 2024
On Tuesday sell volume was still above advancing volume. As well more stocks were falling than advancing. Despite this, both indexes managed to close higher, even if only slightly.
With the Fed’s Beige Book being released today at 2:00 we could see markets stay positive into the report. If the report gives any clue as to the likelihood of an interest rate cut this month, stocks will move higher.
Overall I am not expecting the index to end negative but instead still hold a bullish stance and close positive, even if only slightly.
The Black Friday Special ends today at midnight ET. Prices are excellent this year for one, six and twelve month memberships. There is also an 18 month membership, Platinum, that is available with a saving of $355. This membership level won’t be available after today when the sale ends. I hope you will take advantage of the discounted prices. The sale runs until Wednesday Dec 4 at midnight.
Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events
Monday:
9:45 S&P final manufacturing PMI came in higher than estimated at 49.7
10:00 ISM manufacturing came in higher than estimated at 48.4%
10:00 Construction spending rose to 0.4% from 0.1% prior
Tuesday:
10:00 Job openings were above estimates at 7.7 million
Anytime – Auto sales beat estimated coming in at 16.5 million.
Wednesday:
8:15 ADP employment is estimated to drop to 163,000 from 233,000
9:45 S&P final services PMI is estimated to stay unchanged at 57.0
10:00 ISM services are estimated to dip slightly to 55.6
10:00 Factory orders are expected to rise to -0.2% from -0.5%
2:00 Fed Beige Book