Stock Market Outlook for Tue Sep 14 2021 – Possible Rally Attempt But Still Lower

On Monday the close was mildly bullish but a gain of 10 points after losing 76 points and all of that in the final minutes still points to weakness.

Let’s review the technical indicators at the close on Monday to see what they are signaling investors should expect for Tuesday.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Sep 13 2021 

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning sideways at the 4400 level which is neutral. The Upper Bollinger Band is falling which is bearish.

The 21 and 50 day moving averages are also dipping lower which is bearish.

The closing candlestick on Monday though is bullish and often signals a second day of a bounce attempt.

Only the 100 and 200 day moving averages are climbing. For Tuesday the SPX chart is slightly more bearish than bullish.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Sep 13 2021

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is falling and negative.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Thu Sep 9. On Mon Sep 13 the down signal strengthened.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is unchanged for Tuesday.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place and is no longer overbought.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising from being oversold.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is unchanged for Tuesday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

4550 is resistance

4525 is resistance

4500 is resistance

4490 is resistance

4475 is light support

4450 is light support

4400 is good support

4370 is good support

4350 is light support

4300 is light support

4290 is light support

4270 is light support

4250 is good support

4225 is light support

4200 is good support

4175 is light support

4150 is light support

4100 is good support

4070 is light support

4050 is light support

4000 is good support

3900 is support

3850 is support

3800 is support

3750 is good support

3700 is light support

3680 is light support

3600 is strong support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Sep 14 2021 

For Tuesday only one signal is indicating a further bounce. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a chance for a further advance off of Monday’s late day bounce. The other indicators are signaling little change and others are signaling lower.

There is a good chance investors may try to push stocks higher ahead of the upcoming inflation report. However in general the technical indicators are advising caution as there is a chance for a rally attempt again on Tuesday but the outlook is bearish and lower.

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