Stock Market Outlook for Tue Nov 12 2019 – Weakness and Higher Close

Mon Nov 11 2019 saw the indexes open lower but then spend the day in a slow climb back to almost end the day flat. The Dow ended the day positive as Boeing Stock continued its advance.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Nov 11 2019 

The SPX chart is bullish except for the closing candlestick which is bearish for Tuesday.

A new light support level is at the 3030 level.

All the major moving averages are climbing including the 50 and 21 day moving averages. The 21 day moving average is moving quickly and is now above the 3030 valuation.

The two buy signals from September are still in place.

The Lower Bollinger Band is now nearing the 100 day moving average which if it crosses above it will be another bullish signal.

Stock Market Outlook review of Mon Nov 11 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is positive and falling.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued an up signal on Tue Oct 15 2019. The up signal was weaker on Monday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is positive and falling.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic is extremely overbought but with a neutral signal.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is falling and still overbought.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is falling indicating lower prices should be expected for Tuesday.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3100 is resistance

3030 in light support

3000 is support

2960 is light support

2950 was light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Nov 12 2019 

The technical indicators are losing momentum and strength after two days of some weakness. However there are no indications the weakness will last long.

Tuesday should start higher and investors will try to push the index higher. Any positive news on China will send the index higher on Tuesday. Any negative news will keep the index locked below 3100.

The outlook for Tuesday is for a higher close.

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