Stock Market Outlook for Tue Jul 7 2020 – Morning Dip But Bias Still Higher

Stock Market Outlook - Morning Dip But Bias Up

Monday saw another new record for the NASDAQ index and the S&P reached the highest level since the market collapse. Monday saw steady and wide spread buying. Here’s what the technical indicators advise to expect for Tue Jul 7 2020.


Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Mon Jul 6 2020 

The index closed above the 21 day moving average again on Monday. The closing candlestick was bullish for Tuesday. The index closed near the day’s high on good volume which normally means a morning dip should be expected.

The index is still in a Bollinger Bands Squeeze but there are signs the Upper Bollinger Band is rising which means the Squeeze should end with the index moving higher.

There are now 6 up signals and no down signals in the chart. I have removed the details of the March collapse and the first up signal from May.

The index is back to the standard form of the 21, 50, 100 and 200 day format which is typical of a bull market.  The market still has to retake the 3200 level and push higher to confirm whether this is a rally to a new high or just another rally in a sideways market stuck in a trading range. On Monday it closed at 3179 and should be able to retake 3200 this week.

Stock Market Outlook review Mon Jul 6 2020

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum rose again on Monday.

  • Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued a down signal on Friday June 12. The down signal was almost gone by Monday’s close. Investors could get an up signal tomorrow.

  • Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator is rising and positive.

  • Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a strong up signal in place.

Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

  • Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

  • Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.





Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3200 is resistance

3150 is support

3050 is support

3000 is support

2975 is light support

2950 is light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is light support

2800 is good support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support and marked a drop of 20.4%.

2675 is light resistant

2650 is light support

2625 is light support

2600 is support

2550 is light support

2500 was good support and marked a correction of 26.3%

2344 is the next level of support and marks a 30.9% correction.

2191 was the market low on March 23

2100 is light support

2000 is good support and marks a drop of 1393 points for a 41% correction. Some analysts still believe the index will fall this low in the second half of 2020.


 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Tue Jul 7 2020 

Monday’s advance pushed all the technical indicators to positive signals.

MACD is almost ready to issue an up signal as the Bollinger Bands Squeeze ends.

The close on Monday was at the highs of the day which usually is followed by a morning dip on the next day.

For Tuesday, we should see a morning dip which won’t be very deep but by the end of the day the index will be higher again. For Wednesday the market may be starting to fight a number of overbought signals.

Remember there is only one more day before the 4th of July sale ends. You can review the sale details through this link.


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