Stock Market Outlook for Thu Oct 10 2019 – Weakness and Lower

Futures Wednesday night show weakness to start off the day for Thursday as reports of no progress on the trade negotiations sent stock indexes lower before markets open.

Stock Market Outlook Chart Comments At The Close on Wed Oct 9 2019 

The 21 day moving average is still falling followed by the 50 day moving average.

The index rallies and managed to reach the 100 day moving average. This left behind a bullish candlestick for Thursday.

You can also see that the Lower Bollinger Band is moving lower for a third day which indicates growing weakness.

The 100 day moving average is falling. Only the 200 day moving average is still climbing.

The two buy signals from September are still in place.

Stock Market Outlook review of Wed Oct 9 2019

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review:

Momentum: Momentum is moving sideways.

• Settings: For momentum I use a 10 period when studying market direction.

MACD Histogram: MACD (Moving Averages Convergence / Divergence) issued down signal on Fri Sep 27 2019. The down signal was still dominant on Wednesday.

• Settings: For MACD Histogram, I am using the Fast Points set at 13, Slow Points at 26 and Smoothing at 9. 

Ultimate Oscillator: The Ultimate Oscillator signal is rising and positive.

• Settings: The Ultimate Oscillator settings are: Period 1 is 5, Period 2 is 10, Period 3 is 15, Factor 1 is 4, Factor 2 is 2 and Factor 3 is 1. These are not the default settings but are the settings I use with the S&P 500 chart set for 1 to 3 months.

Slow Stochastic: The Slow Stochastic has a down signal in place.

• Settings: For the Slow Stochastic I use the K period of 14 and D period of 3. The Slow Stochastic tries to predict the market direction further out than just one day.

Relative Strength Index: The RSI signal is rising.

• Settings: The relative strength index is set for a period of 5 which gives it 5 days of market movement to monitor.  It is often the first indicator to show an overbought or oversold signal.

Rate of Change: The rate of change signal is rising.

• Settings: Rate Of Change is set for a 21 period. This indicator looks back 21 days and compares price action from the past to the present. With the Rate Of Change, prices are rising when signals are positive. Conversely, prices are falling when signals are negative. As an advance rises the Rate Of Change signal should also rise higher, otherwise the rally is suspect. A decline should see the Rate Of Change fall into negative signals. The more negative the signals the stronger the decline.

Support and Resistance Levels To Be Aware Of:

3000 is resistance

2960 was good support

2950 was light support

2900 is light support

2860 is light support

2840 is support

2800 is strong support

2795 is light support

2745 to 2750 is light support

2725 is light support

2700 is light support

2675 is light support

2650 is support

2625 is light support

2600 is support.

 Stock Market Outlook for Tomorrow – Thu Oct 10 2019 

The technical indicators are still split but the Slow Stochastic and the Moving Average Convergence / Divergence both have down signals in place.

The markets are running on emotion at present as investors try to decide what direction the trade negotiations are taking. News that there is no progress kept the futures lower after the close on Wednesday.

The technical indicators still show weakness but there are also three that are rising.

On Thursday the markets are going to be depending on the trade negotiations. The outlook is lower but any signs of some “deal” with China, no matter how small, will see the indexes push back and turn the market positive as the underlying bias is still up for stocks. Without that on Thursday though, the indexes will close lower.

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