Stock Market Outlook For Thu May 15 2025 – Dips Likely With Possible Lower Close

Prior Trading Day Summary:

On Wednesday stocks continued to rally but with stocks overbought and the indexes stretched, dips are becoming more likely.

On Wednesday the SPX rose just 6 points by the close to end the day at 5892. 55% of all trading volume was to the downside and 65% of stocks were falling.

On the NASDAQ the index rose 136 points to close at 19.146. Volume was huge at 12.3 billion. 50% of all volume was to the upside but 62% of stocks were falling. We can see particularly on the NASDAQ that a lot of the volume traded was concentrated in specific names, like Advanced Micro Devices Stock (AMD) and once again NVIDIA Stock (NVDA).

Let’s review the technical indicators from the close on Wed May 14 2025 to see what we should expect for Thu May 15 2025.

Stock Market Outlook: SPX Closing Chart For Wed May 14 2025

The index closed above all major moving averages but below the Upper Bollinger Band. This signals overbought and a growing potential for weakness to creep in.

The closing candlestick is bullish but is signaling that dips are very likely today.

The 21 day moving average is rising and closed at 5551 which is bullish. At the close, the 21 day crossed above the 50 day, the first up signal from the 21 day moving average.

The 50 day moving average is rising and closed at 5552 which is bullish. The 50 day moving average fell below the 100 day on Tue April 15 which issued a 4th down signal on the SPX. The 50 day on Friday May 2 fell below the 200 day for a 5th down signal.

The 100 day moving average is rising and closed at 5685 which is bullish.

The 200 day moving average is rising and closed at 5645 which is bullish.

The Lower Bollinger Band is turning lower which is bullish. The Upper Bollinger Band is rising which is bullish.

For Thu May 15 2025 the SPX chart is more bullish than bearish but the closing candlestick is warning of dips today.

SPX Stock Market Outlook review of Wed May 14 2025

Stock Market Outlook: Technical Indicators Review

Stock Market Outlook for Thu May 15 2025 

For Thursday a new up signal starts the day with the 21 day now above the 50 day and still climbing.

The close on Wednesday pointed to dips for Thursday, some of which could be deeper than expected.

On Thursday we also get a speech from Fed Chair Powell at 8:40 before markets begin trading. This could impact the mood and market direction.

Overall though many stocks are stretched into overbought readings and a day or two of weakness is likely as investors take some profits and reposition for what could be another move higher.

Potential Economic and Political Market Moving Events

Monday:

2:00 Monthly federal budget for April came in slightly higher than estimated at $258 billion

Tuesday:

6:00 NFIB optimism index was 95.8 down from 97.4 prior

8:30 Consumer price index rose 0.2% from -0.1% prior

8:30 Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year was unchanged at 2.4%

8:30 Core CPI is expected to rose slightly to 0.3% from 0.1% prior

8:30 Core CPI year-over-year was unchanged at 2.8%

Wednesday:

no economic reports

Thursday:

8:30 Weekly Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are expected to slip to 226,000 from 228,000 prior

8:30 Retail sales are estimated to fall to 0.1% from 1.4% prior

8:30 Producer Price Index is expected to rise to 0.3% from -0.4% prior

8:30 Core PPI is estimated to rise to 0.3% from -0.1% prior

8:40 Fed Chair Powell speaks

9:15 Industrial production is estimated to rise 0.1% from -0.3% prior

10:00 Business inventories are estimated to remain unchanged at 0.2%

10:00 Home builder confidence is estimated unchanged at 40